No-deal Brexit - Statistics & Facts

As 2018 drew to a close, Britain and the European Union finally reached a withdrawal agreement on how Brexit would proceed, following two years of tense negotiations. Despite this, the deal was initially rejected by the House of Commons in a vote on January 15, 2019, with 432 MPs voting against the deal, making it the heaviest defeat that a British government has faced in modern times. Although the British Prime Minister, Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote in the immediate aftermath of this defeat, it is unclear what she can do to get her deal through parliament at the second time of asking.

If the deal is rejected again, the default scenario is a no-deal Brexit, which would mean that the existing trade, travel and legal arrangements that have been in place prior to this point would suddenly cease to apply. There would also be no 21-month transitional period, as this is contingent on there being an agreement between the two parties. It is feared this may lead to huge problems in and around the port of Dover, where new customs checks could cause approximately 40 mile-long queues of traffic. Based on its original forecasts for 2019, the Bank of England predicted a no-deal Brexit would lead to an eight percent drop in the UK's gross domestic product, as well as a 6.5 percent increase in inflation. In terms of job losses, there could be about 750 thousand jobs lost in Great Britain, with 150 jobs lost in London alone. There are also concerns for the fate of EU nationals residing in Britain, as well as British citizens currently resident in the EU whose legal status will be uncertain without an agreement. As of 2017, there were approximately 293 thousand British citizens resident in Spain, as well as a further 152.9 thousand in France and 96.5 thousand in Germany.

Although a no-deal is the default scenario should May's deal be rejected a second time, there are various other outcomes which may occur. A strong possibility is another general election, or even a second referendum on Brexit itself. Even at this late stage, no one can say with any certainty what will happen next, although with the clock running down to March 29, 2019 we may soon find out.

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No-deal Brexit - Important statistics

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No-deal Brexit Infographic - What 'no deal' would mean for the UK
 estimated number of jobs threatened per country in the case of a hard Brexitbrexit plan b surveyeconomic consequences of a no-deal Brexit

Infographics on the topic

No-deal Brexit Infographic - What 'no deal' would mean for the UK
 estimated number of jobs threatened per country in the case of a hard Brexitbrexit plan b surveyeconomic consequences of a no-deal Brexit

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