U.S. light vehicle sales forecast by fuel type 2021-2050

Light vehicles running on conventional gasoline are projected to remain the best-selling vehicle type in the United States in 2050, representing around 11.36 million sales. Gasoline vehicle sales are expected to decrease slowly between 2021 and 2050. By contrast, battery-electric vehicle sales are forecast to grow steadily, becoming the second most popular fuel type in the U.S. in 2022.

Global gasoline price inflation impacts the market

The monthly average retail price of gasoline in the United States peaked in June 2022 amid market uncertainty. Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to rising commodity prices, impacting the gasoline stock in many countries reliant on Russia's crude oil exports. While the United States is not dependent on finished motor gasoline imports, its light-duty vehicle fleet uses the most energy, at nearly 7.9 million barrels per day in oil equivalent in 2022. These increased prices at the pump, therefore, contribute to the decrease in the conventional gasoline light vehicle market.

U.S. electric vehicle market relies on Tesla

Plug-in electric vehicle sales reached an all-time high in the United States in 2022, boosted by increased battery-electric vehicle popularity. However, the American electric vehicle market is dependent on Tesla sales. In 2022, Tesla recorded over five times as many all-electric vehicle sales as Ford, which ranked second. This directly contrasts with the global BEV market, where the gap between Tesla and other automakers is not as steep.