European opinion on outcome of war in Ukraine 2024

Almost two years into Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, public opinion in many European countries has turned against the idea of an outright victory for the Ukrainian military, with the most respondents in all countries surveyed in Europe believing that the war will end in a negotiated compromise between Ukraine and Russia. There is substantial variation between European countries, however, with 17.4 percent of respondents in Poland still believing that Ukraine can reclaim its lost territory in the east of the country and expel the Russian military, while only two percent of respondents in Greece believe so.

On the other hand, 30.5 percent of respondents in Hungary believe Russia will achieve an outright victory in its invasion of Ukraine. Hungary remains the most skeptical EU member state of efforts to support Ukraine, with some accusing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of being too close to Russia. Overall, 19.5 percent of respondents in the included countries believe Russia will achieve a military victory, versus only 9.6 percent believing so for Ukraine. 37.2 percent of respondents believe that a negotiated compromise is most likely.

Public opinion on the most likely outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war in selected European countries in January 2024

Characteristic	Ukrainian victory	Negotiated compromise	Don't care	None of these	Don't know	Russian victory
Average of countries included	9.6%	37.2%	3%	11.5%	19.3%	19.5%
Poland	17.4%	26.6%	5.3%	8.2%	28.1%	14.4%
Sweden	17%	36.7%	1.3%	7.7%	18%	19.3%
Portugal	16.7%	34.8%	2.2%	16.5%	18.6%	11.3%
Netherlands	9.8%	38%	2.2%	13.5%	21.1%	15.4%
Germany	9.5%	30.6%	2.4%	15.9%	22.4%	19.2%
Spain	9.3%	44.1%	3.8%	4.5%	17.6%	20.7%
Romania	9.1%	37.3%	4.2%	12.3%	19.1%	18%
France	8.5%	33.4%	3.7%	14.4%	22.9%	17.1%
Austria	6.8%	36.2%	3.6%	16%	17.9%	19.5%
Italy	5.5%	43.3%	3.1%	12.7%	17%	18.5%
Hungary	3.5%	38.3%	1.8%	7.9%	18.1%	30.5%
Greece	2%	46.9%	2%	7.9%	11.4%	29.7%