UK GDP growth forecast comparison 2019-2023

Forecasted gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2019 to 2023, by institution*

by Daniel Clark, last edited May 27, 2019
UK GDP growth forecast comparison 2019-2023 According to forecasts from OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility), the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research), the Gross Domestic Product of the United Kingdom is expected to grow at a rate between 1.2 and 1.5 percent in 2019. In the four years after 2019, GDP growth is expected to increase, reaching almost 2 percent by 2022 in the most optimistic scenario.
No-deal Brexit and GDP
In the event of a no-deal Brexit, where the United Kingdom leaves the European Union without any sort of agreement then the Gross Domestic Product of the UK could decline by as much as eight percent. In this scenario, the Bank of England has also predicted that the unemployment rate could peak at 7.5 percent, and that house prices could decline by as much as 30 percent.

Recent GDP Growth shows positive signs
Although Brexit has led the United Kingdom into a political crisis, the economy appears to be weathering the storm relatively well.  The most recent data for 2019 has that the pace of economic growth is accelerating. While the employment rate for the first quarter of 2019 is the highest since records began.
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Forecasted gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2019 to 2023, by institution*

Loading statistic...
OBRIMFNIESR
20231.6%1.6%1.9%
20221.6%1.6%1.9%
20211.6%1.6%1.7%
20201.4%1.6%1.7%
20191.2%1.5%1.5%
OBRIMFNIESR
20231.6%1.6%1.9%
20221.6%1.6%1.9%
20211.6%1.6%1.7%
20201.4%1.6%1.7%
20191.2%1.5%1.5%
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by Daniel Clark, last edited May 27, 2019
According to forecasts from OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility), the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research), the Gross Domestic Product of the United Kingdom is expected to grow at a rate between 1.2 and 1.5 percent in 2019. In the four years after 2019, GDP growth is expected to increase, reaching almost 2 percent by 2022 in the most optimistic scenario.
No-deal Brexit and GDP
In the event of a no-deal Brexit, where the United Kingdom leaves the European Union without any sort of agreement then the Gross Domestic Product of the UK could decline by as much as eight percent. In this scenario, the Bank of England has also predicted that the unemployment rate could peak at 7.5 percent, and that house prices could decline by as much as 30 percent.

Recent GDP Growth shows positive signs
Although Brexit has led the United Kingdom into a political crisis, the economy appears to be weathering the storm relatively well.  The most recent data for 2019 has that the pace of economic growth is accelerating. While the employment rate for the first quarter of 2019 is the highest since records began.
Show more
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