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U.S. metro areas at highest risk of a housing downturn in recession 2019

Risk of a housing downturn in selected metropolitan areas in the United States in 2019

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Release date

December 2019


United States

Survey time period


Supplementary notes

The source analyzed the following factors in the 50 largest metro areas:
-Median home sale price-to-household income ration.
-Average loan-to-value ratio of homes sold in 2018.
-Home price volatility, measured by the standard deviation of home prices year-to-year.
-Share of home sales that are flips, i.e. sold twice within 12 months for a different price.
-Diversity of local employment, measured as the probability that any two randomly selected workers are in the same field.
-Share of the local economy dependent on exports.
-Share of local households headed by someone age 65 or older.

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