U.S. housing markets at highest risk in recession 2019

In a 2019 analysis, Riverside, California was the most at risk of a housing downturn in a recession out of the 50 largest metro areas in the United States. The Californian metro area received an overall score of 72.8 percent, which was compiled after factors such as home price volatility and average home loan-to-value ratio were examined.

Risk of a housing downturn in selected metropolitan areas in the United States in 2019

Characteristic	Overall score
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Release date

December 2019

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Region

United States

Survey time period

2019

Supplementary notes

The source analyzed the following factors in the 50 largest metro areas:
-Median home sale price-to-household income ration.
-Average loan-to-value ratio of homes sold in 2018.
-Home price volatility, measured by the standard deviation of home prices year-to-year.
-Share of home sales that are flips, i.e. sold twice within 12 months for a different price.
-Diversity of local employment, measured as the probability that any two randomly selected workers are in the same field.
-Share of the local economy dependent on exports.
-Share of local households headed by someone age 65 or older.

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