Risk of genocide in sub-Saharan Africa 2024

According to a recent study, Sudan is the country with the highest risk for genocide in Africa. Worldwide, Sudan ranks fourth in terms of risk percentage. Ethiopia is the second country in sub-Saharan Africa as well as in the whole of Africa for genocide risks.
In the last years, DR Congo (placed 9th on the ranking) has recorded thousands of deaths of civilians occurring in separate conflicts of armed groups. Some of those killings are also categorized as war crimes and crimes against humanity. The Second Congo war officially ended in 2003, but several rebellions and insurgencies are still ongoing in the country. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, people are being killed also due to their ethnicity. Several attacks are known, targeting Pygmy civilians over the past years. Between 2002 and 2003, about 60 thousand Pygmy civilians were killed, according to different reports. Human rights activists have urged to recognize this as genocide.

Risk of genocide in sub-Saharan African countries between 2023 and 2024

Characteristic	Risk percentage
Sudan*	5.7%
Ethiopia*	5.1%
Guinea	4.5%
Somalia*	3.8%
Nigeria*	3.2%
Uganda	3%
Mali	2.9%
Democratic Republic of Congo*	2.7%
Mozambique	2.7%
Republic of the Congo	2.7%
Angola	2.4%
Chad	2.4%
Niger	2.4%
Tanzania	2.4%
Burkina Faso	2.3%
South Africa	2.3%
Ivory Coast	2%
Liberia	1.9%
Rwanda	1.9%
Sierra Leone	1.8%
Central African Republic*	1.6%
Malawi	1.6%
Cameroon	1.2%
Mauritiania	1.2%
Kenya	1.1%
Togo	1%
Gabon	0.9%
Zimbawe	0.9%
Guinea-Bissau	0.7%
Madagascar	0.7%
Senegal	0.7%
Zambia	0.7%
Burundi	0.6%
Eritrea	0.4%
Comoros	0.3%
Mauritius	0.3%
South Sudan*	0.3%
Benin	0.2%
Djibouti	0.2%
Ghana	0.2%
Namibia	0.2%
Botswana	0.1%
Lesotho	0.1%
The Gambia	0.1%
Equatorial Guinea	0%

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Release date

March 2024

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Region

Africa

Survey time period

2023 and 2024

Supplementary notes

The source does not mention a release date. The date of access was taken as the release date.
The source measures the risk by identifying historical instances of mass killing, discerning patterns that distinguished countries that experienced mass killing from others, and then applying that model to the latest publicly available data to estimate the likelihood of a new mass killing.

* It indicates an ongoing mass killing episode.

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