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Risk of genocide in sub-Saharan Africa 2021

According to a recent study, the Democratic Republic of Congo is the country with the highest risk for genocide in Africa. Worldwide, DR Congo ranks third in terms of risk percentage. Nigeria is the second country is sub-Saharan Africa as well as in the whole of Africa for genocide risks.
In the last years, DR Congo has recorded thousands of deaths of civilians occurring in separate conflicts of armed groups. Some of those killings are also categorized as war crimes and crimes against humanity. The Second Congo war officially ended in 2003, but several rebellions and insurgencies are still ongoing in the country. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, people are being killed also due to their ethnicity. Several attacks are known, targeting Pygmy civilians over the past years. Between 2002 and 2003, about 60 thousand Pygmy civilians were killed, according to different reports. Human rights activists have urged to recognize this as genocide.

Risk of genocide in sub-Saharan African countries between 2020 and 2021

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Release date

February 2021



Survey time period

2020 and 2021

Supplementary notes

The source does not mention a release date. The date of access was taken as the release date.
The source measures the risk by identifying historical instances of mass killing, discerning patterns that distinguished countries that experienced mass killing from others, and then applying that model to the latest publicly available data to estimate the likelihood of a new mass killing.

* It indicates an ongoing mass killing episode.

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