Share of farms experiencing negative income effects with TL after Brexit UK 2025

Share of farms experiencing negative income effects following a trade liberalization scenario after Brexit in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2025, by sector*

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Release date

March 2017

Region

United Kingdom

Survey time period

2016

Supplementary notes

Date of access is date of release.

* These estimates are based on the use of the economic model AGMEMOD, widely used in the past by the European Commission and other member states. The model simulates changes in the UK's net trade position by taking into account changes to farmgate prices, production and consumption for a range of agricultural commodities in the UK. The results are presented against a baseline, which estimates the situation in the UK in 2025, if the UK were to remain in the EU. These results are then fed into another economic tool, the EU's Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), to give a combined impact on UK farm incomes. Farm support scenarios are also taken into account to consider direct income support following the end of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). A trade liberalization scenario would involve the EU applying its Common Customs Tariff (CCT) to UK exports and the UK applying a 50% reduction in those same rates to EU and non-EU country imports. Thus:
TL+100%DP = trade liberalization + current levels of direct payments.
TL+50%DP = trade liberalization + reduction in direct payments of 50%.
TL+0%DP = trade liberalization + abolition of direct payments.

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