Prime yields of commercial property in the UK 2022-2024, by property type

The prime yields in the UK expanded across most property types in 2024, compared to the previous two years. Yields were the lowest in the London West End offices market at four percent. In contrast, shopping center yields stood at eight percent. Yield is an indicator for the expected return of a property investment and is calculated as the ratio of rental income and the property value. Several factors can drive yields - increased demand could raise property values, causing lower yields, while a fall in demand could create the opposite effect. 

Which is the largest commercial real estate sector in the UK?

Office real estate has traditionally accounted for the lion’s share of the commercial property investment market, but since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, investors’ interest has shifted towards industrial real estate. With the e-commerce sector growing and supply chain management becoming more important than ever, so has the industrial and logistic sector. This increase in importance is also reflected in the occupiers market, with the annual take-up exceeding the ten-year average for three years in a row.

How is the commercial property market expected to develop in the coming years?

The industrial and logistic property market is forecast to outperform retail and offices in terms of capital value growth in the period between 2024 and 2028. According to the same forecast, rental growth is expected to turn positive for all property types in 2024, except for shopping centers.