10-year minus 2-year government bond yield spread U.S. 2006-2019
Ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to 2019
by Erin Duffin,
last edited
Aug 16, 2019
The spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yields has been trending down in recent years, sitting at 0.22 percent in July 2019. Crucially, however, the spread remains positive - indicating that investors still have confidence in longer-term economic growth, as investment in long-term bonds is preferred over short-term bonds.
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000-2001, and the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
Ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to 2019
Loading statistic...
| Yield spread | |
|---|---|
| Jul-19 | 0.22% |
| Jun-19 | 0.26% |
| May-19 | 0.19% |
| Apr-19 | 0.19% |
| Mar-19 | 0.16% |
| Feb-19 | 0.18% |
| Jan-19 | 0.17% |
| Dec-18 | 0.15% |
| Nov-18 | 0.26% |
| Oct-18 | 0.29% |
| Sep-18 | 0.23% |
| Aug-18 | 0.25% |
| Jul-18 | 0.28% |
| Jun-18 | 0.38% |
| May-18 | 0.47% |
| Apr-18 | 0.49% |
| Mar-18 | 0.56% |
| Feb-18 | 0.68% |
| Jan-18 | 0.55% |
| Dec-17 | 0.56% |
| Nov-17 | 0.65% |
| Oct-17 | 0.81% |
| Sep-17 | 0.82% |
| Aug-17 | 0.87% |
| Jul-17 | 0.95% |
| Jun-17 | 0.85% |
| May-17 | 1% |
| Apr-17 | 1.06% |
| Mar-17 | 1.17% |
| Feb-17 | 1.22% |
| Jan-17 | 1.22% |
| Dec-16 | 1.29% |
| Nov-16 | 1.16% |
| Oct-16 | 0.92% |
| Sep-16 | 0.86% |
| Aug-16 | 0.82% |
| Jul-16 | 0.83% |
| Jun-16 | 0.91% |
| May-16 | 0.99% |
| Apr-16 | 1.04% |
| Mar-16 | 1.01% |
| Feb-16 | 1.05% |
| Jan-16 | 1.19% |
| Dec-15 | 1.26% |
| Nov-15 | 1.38% |
| Oct-15 | 1.43% |
| Sep-15 | 1.46% |
| Aug-15 | 1.47% |
| Jul-15 | 1.65% |
| Jun-15 | 1.67% |
| May-15 | 1.59% |
| Apr-15 | 1.4% |
| Mar-15 | 1.4% |
| Feb-15 | 1.36% |
| Jan-15 | 1.33% |
| Dec-14 | 1.57% |
| Nov-14 | 1.8% |
| Oct-14 | 1.85% |
| Sep-14 | 1.96% |
| Aug-14 | 1.95% |
| Jul-14 | 2.03% |
| Jun-14 | 2.15% |
| May-14 | 2.17% |
| Apr-14 | 2.29% |
| Mar-14 | 2.32% |
| Feb-14 | 2.38% |
| Jan-14 | 2.47% |
| Dec-13 | 2.56% |
| Nov-13 | 2.42% |
| Oct-13 | 2.28% |
| Sep-13 | 2.41% |
| Aug-13 | 2.38% |
| Jul-13 | 2.24% |
| Jun-13 | 1.97% |
| May-13 | 1.68% |
| Apr-13 | 1.53% |
| Mar-13 | 1.7% |
| Feb-13 | 1.71% |
| Jan-13 | 1.64% |
| Dec-12 | 1.46% |
| Nov-12 | 1.38% |
| Oct-12 | 1.47% |
| Sep-12 | 1.46% |
| Aug-12 | 1.41% |
| Jul-12 | 1.28% |
| Jun-12 | 1.33% |
| May-12 | 1.51% |
| Apr-12 | 1.76% |
| Mar-12 | 1.83% |
| Feb-12 | 1.69% |
| Jan-12 | 1.73% |
| Dec-11 | 1.72% |
| Nov-11 | 1.76% |
| Oct-11 | 1.87% |
| Sep-11 | 1.77% |
| Aug-11 | 2.07% |
| Jul-11 | 2.59% |
| Jun-11 | 2.59% |
| May-11 | 2.61% |
| Apr-11 | 2.73% |
| Mar-11 | 2.71% |
| Feb-11 | 2.81% |
| Jan-11 | 2.78% |
| Dec-10 | 2.67% |
| Nov-10 | 2.31% |
| Oct-10 | 2.16% |
| Sep-10 | 2.17% |
| Aug-10 | 2.18% |
| Jul-10 | 2.39% |
| Jun-10 | 2.48% |
| May-10 | 2.59% |
| Apr-10 | 2.79% |
| Mar-10 | 2.77% |
| Feb-10 | 2.83% |
| Jan-10 | 2.8% |
| Dec-09 | 2.72% |
| Nov-09 | 2.6% |
| Oct-09 | 2.44% |
| Sep-09 | 2.44% |
| Aug-09 | 2.47% |
| Jul-09 | 2.54% |
| Jun-09 | 2.54% |
| May-09 | 2.36% |
| Apr-09 | 2% |
| Mar-09 | 1.89% |
| Feb-09 | 1.89% |
| Jan-09 | 1.71% |
| Dec-08 | 1.6% |
| Nov-08 | 2.32% |
| Oct-08 | 2.2% |
| Sep-08 | 1.61% |
| Aug-08 | 1.47% |
| Jul-08 | 1.44% |
| Jun-08 | 1.33% |
| May-08 | 1.43% |
| Apr-08 | 1.63% |
| Mar-08 | 1.89% |
| Feb-08 | 1.77% |
| Jan-08 | 1.26% |
| Dec-07 | 0.98% |
| Nov-07 | 0.81% |
| Oct-07 | 0.56% |
| Sep-07 | 0.51% |
| Aug-07 | 0.36% |
| Jul-07 | 0.18% |
| Jun-07 | 0.12% |
| May-07 | -0.02% |
| Apr-07 | 0.02% |
| Mar-07 | -0.01% |
| Feb-07 | -0.13% |
| Jan-07 | -0.12% |
| Dec-06 | -0.11% |
| Nov-06 | -0.14% |
| Oct-06 | -0.07% |
| Sep-06 | -0.05% |
| Aug-06 | -0.02% |
| Jul-06 | -0.03% |
| Jun-06 | -0.01% |
| May-06 | 0.14% |
| Apr-06 | 0.1% |
| Mar-06 | -0.01% |
| Feb-06 | -0.1% |
| Jan-06 | 0.02% |
| Yield spread | |
|---|---|
| Jul-19 | 0.22% |
| Jun-19 | 0.26% |
| May-19 | 0.19% |
| Apr-19 | 0.19% |
| Mar-19 | 0.16% |
| Feb-19 | 0.18% |
| Jan-19 | 0.17% |
| Dec-18 | 0.15% |
| Nov-18 | 0.26% |
| Oct-18 | 0.29% |
| Sep-18 | 0.23% |
| Aug-18 | 0.25% |
| Jul-18 | 0.28% |
| Jun-18 | 0.38% |
| May-18 | 0.47% |
| Apr-18 | 0.49% |
| Mar-18 | 0.56% |
| Feb-18 | 0.68% |
| Jan-18 | 0.55% |
| Dec-17 | 0.56% |
| Nov-17 | 0.65% |
| Oct-17 | 0.81% |
| Sep-17 | 0.82% |
| Aug-17 | 0.87% |
| Jul-17 | 0.95% |
| Jun-17 | 0.85% |
| May-17 | 1% |
| Apr-17 | 1.06% |
| Mar-17 | 1.17% |
| Feb-17 | 1.22% |
| Jan-17 | 1.22% |
| Dec-16 | 1.29% |
| Nov-16 | 1.16% |
| Oct-16 | 0.92% |
| Sep-16 | 0.86% |
| Aug-16 | 0.82% |
| Jul-16 | 0.83% |
| Jun-16 | 0.91% |
| May-16 | 0.99% |
| Apr-16 | 1.04% |
| Mar-16 | 1.01% |
| Feb-16 | 1.05% |
| Jan-16 | 1.19% |
| Dec-15 | 1.26% |
| Nov-15 | 1.38% |
| Oct-15 | 1.43% |
| Sep-15 | 1.46% |
| Aug-15 | 1.47% |
| Jul-15 | 1.65% |
| Jun-15 | 1.67% |
| May-15 | 1.59% |
| Apr-15 | 1.4% |
| Mar-15 | 1.4% |
| Feb-15 | 1.36% |
| Jan-15 | 1.33% |
| Dec-14 | 1.57% |
| Nov-14 | 1.8% |
| Oct-14 | 1.85% |
| Sep-14 | 1.96% |
| Aug-14 | 1.95% |
| Jul-14 | 2.03% |
| Jun-14 | 2.15% |
| May-14 | 2.17% |
| Apr-14 | 2.29% |
| Mar-14 | 2.32% |
| Feb-14 | 2.38% |
| Jan-14 | 2.47% |
| Dec-13 | 2.56% |
| Nov-13 | 2.42% |
| Oct-13 | 2.28% |
| Sep-13 | 2.41% |
| Aug-13 | 2.38% |
| Jul-13 | 2.24% |
| Jun-13 | 1.97% |
| May-13 | 1.68% |
| Apr-13 | 1.53% |
| Mar-13 | 1.7% |
| Feb-13 | 1.71% |
| Jan-13 | 1.64% |
| Dec-12 | 1.46% |
| Nov-12 | 1.38% |
| Oct-12 | 1.47% |
| Sep-12 | 1.46% |
| Aug-12 | 1.41% |
| Jul-12 | 1.28% |
| Jun-12 | 1.33% |
| May-12 | 1.51% |
| Apr-12 | 1.76% |
| Mar-12 | 1.83% |
| Feb-12 | 1.69% |
| Jan-12 | 1.73% |
| Dec-11 | 1.72% |
| Nov-11 | 1.76% |
| Oct-11 | 1.87% |
| Sep-11 | 1.77% |
| Aug-11 | 2.07% |
| Jul-11 | 2.59% |
| Jun-11 | 2.59% |
| May-11 | 2.61% |
| Apr-11 | 2.73% |
| Mar-11 | 2.71% |
| Feb-11 | 2.81% |
| Jan-11 | 2.78% |
| Dec-10 | 2.67% |
| Nov-10 | 2.31% |
| Oct-10 | 2.16% |
| Sep-10 | 2.17% |
| Aug-10 | 2.18% |
| Jul-10 | 2.39% |
| Jun-10 | 2.48% |
| May-10 | 2.59% |
| Apr-10 | 2.79% |
| Mar-10 | 2.77% |
| Feb-10 | 2.83% |
| Jan-10 | 2.8% |
| Dec-09 | 2.72% |
| Nov-09 | 2.6% |
| Oct-09 | 2.44% |
| Sep-09 | 2.44% |
| Aug-09 | 2.47% |
| Jul-09 | 2.54% |
| Jun-09 | 2.54% |
| May-09 | 2.36% |
| Apr-09 | 2% |
| Mar-09 | 1.89% |
| Feb-09 | 1.89% |
| Jan-09 | 1.71% |
| Dec-08 | 1.6% |
| Nov-08 | 2.32% |
| Oct-08 | 2.2% |
| Sep-08 | 1.61% |
| Aug-08 | 1.47% |
| Jul-08 | 1.44% |
| Jun-08 | 1.33% |
| May-08 | 1.43% |
| Apr-08 | 1.63% |
| Mar-08 | 1.89% |
| Feb-08 | 1.77% |
| Jan-08 | 1.26% |
| Dec-07 | 0.98% |
| Nov-07 | 0.81% |
| Oct-07 | 0.56% |
| Sep-07 | 0.51% |
| Aug-07 | 0.36% |
| Jul-07 | 0.18% |
| Jun-07 | 0.12% |
| May-07 | -0.02% |
| Apr-07 | 0.02% |
| Mar-07 | -0.01% |
| Feb-07 | -0.13% |
| Jan-07 | -0.12% |
| Dec-06 | -0.11% |
| Nov-06 | -0.14% |
| Oct-06 | -0.07% |
| Sep-06 | -0.05% |
| Aug-06 | -0.02% |
| Jul-06 | -0.03% |
| Jun-06 | -0.01% |
| May-06 | 0.14% |
| Apr-06 | 0.1% |
| Mar-06 | -0.01% |
| Feb-06 | -0.1% |
| Jan-06 | 0.02% |
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by Erin Duffin,
last edited
Aug 16, 2019
The spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yields has been trending down in recent years, sitting at 0.22 percent in July 2019. Crucially, however, the spread remains positive - indicating that investors still have confidence in longer-term economic growth, as investment in long-term bonds is preferred over short-term bonds.
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000-2001, and the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
- Source
- St. Louis Fed
- Show further sources information
- Show publisher information
- Release date
- August 2019
- Region
- Worldwide
- Survey time period
- 2006 to 2019
- Supplementary notes
-
Values are calculated using are the treasury constant maturity. Constant maturity is an adjustment for equivalent maturity used by the Federal Reserve Board to calculate an index based on the average yield of various Treasury securities maturing at different periods - in this case two and ten years.
Values not seasonally adjusted.
Free access to basic statistics
Source
- Source
- St. Louis Fed
- Show further sources information
- Show publisher information
- Release date
- August 2019
More information
- Region
- Worldwide
- Survey time period
- 2006 to 2019
- Supplementary notes
-
Values are calculated using are the treasury constant maturity. Constant maturity is an adjustment for equivalent maturity used by the Federal Reserve Board to calculate an index based on the average yield of various Treasury securities maturing at different periods - in this case two and ten years.
Values not seasonally adjusted.
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