The spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yields has been trending down in recent years, sitting at 0.24 percent in January 2020. Crucially, however, the spread remains positive - indicating that investors still have confidence in longer-term economic growth, as investment in long-term bonds is preferred over short-term bonds.
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000-2001, and the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
Ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to 2020
Yield spread
Jan-20
0.24%
Dec-19
0.25%
Nov-19
0.2%
Oct-19
0.16%
Sep-19
0.05%
Aug-19
0.06%
Jul-19
0.22%
Jun-19
0.26%
May-19
0.19%
Apr-19
0.19%
Mar-19
0.16%
Feb-19
0.18%
Jan-19
0.17%
Dec-18
0.15%
Nov-18
0.26%
Oct-18
0.29%
Sep-18
0.23%
Aug-18
0.25%
Jul-18
0.28%
Jun-18
0.38%
May-18
0.47%
Apr-18
0.49%
Mar-18
0.56%
Feb-18
0.68%
Jan-18
0.55%
Dec-17
0.56%
Nov-17
0.65%
Oct-17
0.81%
Sep-17
0.82%
Aug-17
0.87%
Jul-17
0.95%
Jun-17
0.85%
May-17
1%
Apr-17
1.06%
Mar-17
1.17%
Feb-17
1.22%
Jan-17
1.22%
Dec-16
1.29%
Nov-16
1.16%
Oct-16
0.92%
Sep-16
0.86%
Aug-16
0.82%
Jul-16
0.83%
Jun-16
0.91%
May-16
0.99%
Apr-16
1.04%
Mar-16
1.01%
Feb-16
1.05%
Jan-16
1.19%
Dec-15
1.26%
Nov-15
1.38%
Oct-15
1.43%
Sep-15
1.46%
Aug-15
1.47%
Jul-15
1.65%
Jun-15
1.67%
May-15
1.59%
Apr-15
1.4%
Mar-15
1.4%
Feb-15
1.36%
Jan-15
1.33%
Dec-14
1.57%
Nov-14
1.8%
Oct-14
1.85%
Sep-14
1.96%
Aug-14
1.95%
Jul-14
2.03%
Jun-14
2.15%
May-14
2.17%
Apr-14
2.29%
Mar-14
2.32%
Feb-14
2.38%
Jan-14
2.47%
Dec-13
2.56%
Nov-13
2.42%
Oct-13
2.28%
Sep-13
2.41%
Aug-13
2.38%
Jul-13
2.24%
Jun-13
1.97%
May-13
1.68%
Apr-13
1.53%
Mar-13
1.7%
Feb-13
1.71%
Jan-13
1.64%
Dec-12
1.46%
Nov-12
1.38%
Oct-12
1.47%
Sep-12
1.46%
Aug-12
1.41%
Jul-12
1.28%
Jun-12
1.33%
May-12
1.51%
Apr-12
1.76%
Mar-12
1.83%
Feb-12
1.69%
Jan-12
1.73%
Dec-11
1.72%
Nov-11
1.76%
Oct-11
1.87%
Sep-11
1.77%
Aug-11
2.07%
Jul-11
2.59%
Jun-11
2.59%
May-11
2.61%
Apr-11
2.73%
Mar-11
2.71%
Feb-11
2.81%
Jan-11
2.78%
Dec-10
2.67%
Nov-10
2.31%
Oct-10
2.16%
Sep-10
2.17%
Aug-10
2.18%
Jul-10
2.39%
Jun-10
2.48%
May-10
2.59%
Apr-10
2.79%
Mar-10
2.77%
Feb-10
2.83%
Jan-10
2.8%
Dec-09
2.72%
Nov-09
2.6%
Oct-09
2.44%
Sep-09
2.44%
Aug-09
2.47%
Jul-09
2.54%
Jun-09
2.54%
May-09
2.36%
Apr-09
2%
Mar-09
1.89%
Feb-09
1.89%
Jan-09
1.71%
Dec-08
1.6%
Nov-08
2.32%
Oct-08
2.2%
Sep-08
1.61%
Aug-08
1.47%
Jul-08
1.44%
Jun-08
1.33%
May-08
1.43%
Apr-08
1.63%
Mar-08
1.89%
Feb-08
1.77%
Jan-08
1.26%
Dec-07
0.98%
Nov-07
0.81%
Oct-07
0.56%
Sep-07
0.51%
Aug-07
0.36%
Jul-07
0.18%
Jun-07
0.12%
May-07
-0.02%
Apr-07
0.02%
Mar-07
-0.01%
Feb-07
-0.13%
Jan-07
-0.12%
Dec-06
-0.11%
Nov-06
-0.14%
Oct-06
-0.07%
Sep-06
-0.05%
Aug-06
-0.02%
Jul-06
-0.03%
Jun-06
-0.01%
May-06
0.14%
Apr-06
0.1%
Mar-06
-0.01%
Feb-06
-0.1%
Jan-06
0.02%
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Values are calculated using are the treasury constant maturity. Constant maturity is an adjustment for equivalent maturity used by the Federal Reserve Board to calculate an index based on the average yield of various Treasury securities maturing at different periods - in this case two and ten years.
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St. Louis Fed. (February 3, 2020). Ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to 2020 [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved April 07, 2020, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1039451/us-government-bonds-ten-minus-two-year-yield-spread/
St. Louis Fed. "Ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to 2020." Chart. February 3, 2020. Statista. Accessed April 07, 2020. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1039451/us-government-bonds-ten-minus-two-year-yield-spread/
St. Louis Fed. (2020). Ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to 2020. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: April 07, 2020. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1039451/us-government-bonds-ten-minus-two-year-yield-spread/
St. Louis Fed. "Ten-year Government Bond Yield minus Two-year Government Bond Yield Spread in The United States from 2006 to 2020." Statista, Statista Inc., 3 Feb 2020, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1039451/us-government-bonds-ten-minus-two-year-yield-spread/
St. Louis Fed, Ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to 2020 Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1039451/us-government-bonds-ten-minus-two-year-yield-spread/ (last visited April 07, 2020)
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