The spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yields cam close to reaching negative values in late 2019, before rising again in 2020. As of March 2022, the spread was a positive value of 0.22 percentage points - indicating that investors still have confidence in longer-term economic growth, as investment in long-term bonds is preferred over short-term bonds.
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000-2001, and the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
Monthly ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to 2021
Characteristic
Yield spread
Mar-22
0.22%
Feb-22
0.49%
Jan-22
0.78%
Dec-21
0.78%
Nov-21
1.05%
Oct-21
1.19%
Sep-21
1.13%
Aug-21
1.06%
Jul-21
1.1%
Jun-21
1.32%
May-21
1.47%
Apr-21
1.47%
Mar-21
1.46%
Feb-21
1.14%
Jan-21
0.95%
Dec-20
0.79%
Nov-20
0.7%
Oct-20
0.64%
Sep-20
0.55%
Aug-20
0.51%
Jul-20
0.47%
Jun-20
0.55%
May-20
0.5%
Apr-20
0.44%
Mar-20
0.42%
Feb-20
0.17%
Jan-20
0.24%
Dec-19
0.25%
Nov-19
0.2%
Oct-19
0.16%
Sep-19
0.05%
Aug-19
0.06%
Jul-19
0.22%
Jun-19
0.26%
May-19
0.19%
Apr-19
0.19%
Mar-19
0.16%
Feb-19
0.18%
Jan-19
0.17%
Dec-18
0.15%
Nov-18
0.26%
Oct-18
0.29%
Sep-18
0.23%
Aug-18
0.25%
Jul-18
0.28%
Jun-18
0.38%
May-18
0.47%
Apr-18
0.49%
Mar-18
0.56%
Feb-18
0.68%
Jan-18
0.55%
Dec-17
0.56%
Nov-17
0.65%
Oct-17
0.81%
Sep-17
0.82%
Aug-17
0.87%
Jul-17
0.95%
Jun-17
0.85%
May-17
1%
Apr-17
1.06%
Mar-17
1.17%
Feb-17
1.22%
Jan-17
1.22%
Dec-16
1.29%
Nov-16
1.16%
Oct-16
0.92%
Sep-16
0.86%
Aug-16
0.82%
Jul-16
0.83%
Jun-16
0.91%
May-16
0.99%
Apr-16
1.04%
Mar-16
1.01%
Feb-16
1.05%
Jan-16
1.19%
Dec-15
1.26%
Nov-15
1.38%
Oct-15
1.43%
Sep-15
1.46%
Aug-15
1.47%
Jul-15
1.65%
Jun-15
1.67%
May-15
1.59%
Apr-15
1.4%
Mar-15
1.4%
Feb-15
1.36%
Jan-15
1.33%
Dec-14
1.57%
Nov-14
1.8%
Oct-14
1.85%
Sep-14
1.96%
Aug-14
1.95%
Jul-14
2.03%
Jun-14
2.15%
May-14
2.17%
Apr-14
2.29%
Mar-14
2.32%
Feb-14
2.38%
Jan-14
2.47%
Dec-13
2.56%
Nov-13
2.42%
Oct-13
2.28%
Sep-13
2.41%
Aug-13
2.38%
Jul-13
2.24%
Jun-13
1.97%
May-13
1.68%
Apr-13
1.53%
Mar-13
1.7%
Feb-13
1.71%
Jan-13
1.64%
Dec-12
1.46%
Nov-12
1.38%
Oct-12
1.47%
Sep-12
1.46%
Aug-12
1.41%
Jul-12
1.28%
Jun-12
1.33%
May-12
1.51%
Apr-12
1.76%
Mar-12
1.83%
Feb-12
1.69%
Jan-12
1.73%
Dec-11
1.72%
Nov-11
1.76%
Oct-11
1.87%
Sep-11
1.77%
Aug-11
2.07%
Jul-11
2.59%
Jun-11
2.59%
May-11
2.61%
Apr-11
2.73%
Mar-11
2.71%
Feb-11
2.81%
Jan-11
2.78%
Dec-10
2.67%
Nov-10
2.31%
Oct-10
2.16%
Sep-10
2.17%
Aug-10
2.18%
Jul-10
2.39%
Jun-10
2.48%
May-10
2.59%
Apr-10
2.79%
Mar-10
2.77%
Feb-10
2.83%
Jan-10
2.8%
Dec-09
2.72%
Nov-09
2.6%
Oct-09
2.44%
Sep-09
2.44%
Aug-09
2.47%
Jul-09
2.54%
Jun-09
2.54%
May-09
2.36%
Apr-09
2%
Mar-09
1.89%
Feb-09
1.89%
Jan-09
1.71%
Dec-08
1.6%
Nov-08
2.32%
Oct-08
2.2%
Sep-08
1.61%
Aug-08
1.47%
Jul-08
1.44%
Jun-08
1.33%
May-08
1.43%
Apr-08
1.63%
Mar-08
1.89%
Feb-08
1.77%
Jan-08
1.26%
Dec-07
0.98%
Nov-07
0.81%
Oct-07
0.56%
Sep-07
0.51%
Aug-07
0.36%
Jul-07
0.18%
Jun-07
0.12%
May-07
-0.02%
Apr-07
0.02%
Mar-07
-0.01%
Feb-07
-0.13%
Jan-07
-0.12%
Dec-06
-0.11%
Nov-06
-0.14%
Oct-06
-0.07%
Sep-06
-0.05%
Aug-06
-0.02%
Jul-06
-0.03%
Jun-06
-0.01%
May-06
0.14%
Apr-06
0.1%
Mar-06
-0.01%
Feb-06
-0.1%
Jan-06
0.02%
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Values are calculated using are the treasury constant maturity. Constant maturity is an adjustment for equivalent maturity used by the Federal Reserve Board to calculate an index based on the average yield of various Treasury securities maturing at different periods - in this case two and ten years.
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St. Louis Fed. (April 1, 2022). Monthly ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to 2021 [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved May 20, 2022, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1039451/us-government-bonds-ten-minus-two-year-yield-spread/
St. Louis Fed. "Monthly ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to 2021." Chart. April 1, 2022. Statista. Accessed May 20, 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1039451/us-government-bonds-ten-minus-two-year-yield-spread/
St. Louis Fed. (2022). Monthly ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to 2021. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: May 20, 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1039451/us-government-bonds-ten-minus-two-year-yield-spread/
St. Louis Fed. "Monthly Ten-year Government Bond Yield minus Two-year Government Bond Yield Spread in The United States from 2006 to 2021." Statista, Statista Inc., 1 Apr 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1039451/us-government-bonds-ten-minus-two-year-yield-spread/
St. Louis Fed, Monthly ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to 2021 Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1039451/us-government-bonds-ten-minus-two-year-yield-spread/ (last visited May 20, 2022)
