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10-year minus 2-year government bond yield spread U.S. 2006-2020

The spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yields has been trending down in recent years, sitting at 0.64 percent in October 2020. Crucially, however, the spread remains positive - indicating that investors still have confidence in longer-term economic growth, as investment in long-term bonds is preferred over short-term bonds.

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000-2001, and the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

Ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to 2020

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Release date

December 2020



Survey time period

2006 to 2020

Supplementary notes

Values are calculated using are the treasury constant maturity. Constant maturity is an adjustment for equivalent maturity used by the Federal Reserve Board to calculate an index based on the average yield of various Treasury securities maturing at different periods - in this case two and ten years.

Values not seasonally adjusted.

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