Projected coronavirus impact on China's GDP growth 2020

As the novel coronavirus COVID-19 spreads from China to over 200 countries across the world, the country's economic growth could hit its lowest point since 1990. According to the median projection from over 40 economists in late April, 2020, China's GDP growth could fall as low as to 1.8 percent in 2020. In the first quarter of 2020, the second-largest economy recorded the first contraction in decades due to the epidemic. 

A root-to-branch shutdown of factories

To curb the spread of the virus, the Chinese government imposed a lockdown in Wuhan, the epicenter, and other cities in Hubei province on January 23, 2020. A strict nationwide lockdown soon followed. Many factories remained closed in February, resulting in a plunge in manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The shutdown of the “world’s factory” had severely disrupted global supply chains, especially automobile production. In March 2020, very few industrial sectors reported positive production growth.  The pharmaceuticals sector recorded a production increase, which was mainly driven by the global demand for vital medical supplies. China had exported over seven billion yuan worth of face masks.

Ripple effects on global tourism

Apart from the manufacturing industry, the prolonged closures of business had caused significant losses in various sectors in China. The travel and tourism sector was massively affected by a drastic decline in flight ticket sales  and hotel occupancy rates. The domestic tourism market expects a loss of 20 percent in revenues for 2020. Industry experts predicted that the global travel and tourism industry could lose about 2.5 trillion U.S. dollars in that year. 

Median forecast for China's GDP growth rate due to coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 as of April 22, 2020

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Release date

April 2020



Survey time period

April 20 to 22, 2020

Number of respondents

+40 economists

Special properties

respondents based both in and outside mainland China

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Statistics on "Coronavirus: impact on the global economy"

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