Canada: forecast change in daily high temperature 2050

Canada's record high daily temperature is estimated to change by 1.4 to two degrees Celsius between 2031 and 2050, depending on the emission scenario. Of all regions, Prairies and Ontario are estimated to see the biggest temperature changes, at 1.6 degrees Celsius in the low emission scenario and 2.5 degrees Celsius in the high emission scenario.

Forecast change in annual record high daily temperature in Canada between 2031 and 2050, compared to 1986 to 2005 mean, by region and scenario* (in degrees Celsius)

Characteristic	Low emission scenario	High emission scenario
British Columbia	1.7	2.3
Prairies	1.6	2.5
Ontario	1.6	2.5
Quebec	1.4	2.1
Total Canada	1.4	2
Atlantic	1.4	1.9
Northern Canada	1.3	1.8

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Release date

July 2020

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Region

Canada

Survey time period

2020

Supplementary notes

* The linear warming trend is calculated to be 1.2 degree Celsius.

Projections based on a low emission scenario, which assumes a future global mean temperature change (1986-2005 as a reference period) of about one degree Celsius, while the high emission scenario projects a change of 3.7 degrees Celsius.

Adapted from Statistics Canada, Canada's Changing Climate Report 2019, table 4.3, 2020. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

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