Zika epidemic estimated costs in Caribbean, Central and South America by scenario 2017

This survey shows the total projected short-term costs of the Zika epidemic in the Caribbean, and Central and South America from 2015 to 2017, by scenario, as a percentage of GDP. Under the current rate of infection the total projected short-term costs of the Zika epidemic in South America were estimated to be 0.03 percent of the GDP from 2015 to 2017.

Projected short-term costs of the Zika epidemic in the Caribbean, Central and South America from 2015 to 2017, by scenario (as a percentage of GDP)

Characteristic	Baseline Zika	Medium Zika	High Zika
Caribbean	0.18%	0.21%	0.34%
Central America & Mexico	0.06%	0.07%	0.13%
South America	0.03%	0.04%	0.09%

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Release date

April 2017

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Region

Brazil, Colombia, Central and South America, Suriname

Survey time period

2015 to 2017

Method of interview

Telephone interviews and online survey

Supplementary notes

*The three scenarios were:

Baseline Zika (current rate of infection): This scenario assumes that the spread of the infection in each country will follow a pattern similar to that seen since the beginning of the epidemic in the region, as per linear projections based on the data released by country health authorities and published by PAHO [28]. This represents a conservative scenario in which the epidemic will exhibit three equal-sized infection seasons and in which containment efforts through investments in vector control and other prevention efforts are such that the rate of spread of the disease does not increase.

Medium Zika (intermediate infection rate): This scenario assumes that the share of the population infected by Zika in the current epidemic (again assumed to last for three seasons) will be similar to that of recent epidemics of chikungunya and dengue, or around 20 percent [29], [30]. It is assumed that the epidemic will exhibit three equal-sized infection seasons. Under this scenario, prevention and vector control efforts are likely moderate and/or moderately successful.

High Zika (high infection rate): This scenario assumes a cumulative infection rate in the susceptible population of 73 percent, corresponding to the highest incidence on record to date [31]. It is assumed that the epidemic will exhibit three equal-sized infection seasons. Under this scenario, prevention and vector control efforts are likely minimal, ineffective and in need of significant strengthening.

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