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Clinical trial success rates by therapeutic area 2020

The probability that a cancer drug will make it from phase I to final approval stood at some 2.4 percent, according to a study published in March 2020. The data is based on clinical success rate models from 2014, 2016, and 2019. Once a cancer drug made it into phase III, the chances to make it to final approval increased to 35.5 percent.

Clinical trial success rates by therapeutic area as of 2020*

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Release date

March 2020


United States

Survey time period

as of March 2020

Supplementary notes

* Rates across all indications for individual therapeutic agents (as opposed to rates for lead indications, which were higher in all phases). Only the success rates used in this analysis were reported.
All values are based on three models on clinical trial success by Wong et al. (2019), Thomas et al. (2016), and Hay et al. (2014).

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Statistics on "Clinical trials"

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