2024 U.S. Presidential Election - statistics & facts
The rematch that never was
President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party announced his intention to run for reelection in April 2023. Although global views of Joe Biden have been generally high in comparison to other world leaders, Biden has seen consistently low approval ratings across the United States since his inauguration. Forced to come to terms with his slim chances at winning in November, Biden announced on July 21 that he would end his bid for reelection. With just over three months until Election Day, President Biden’s decision not to run for a second term turned what would have been a rematch between the two 2020 candidates into an uncertain race. Many Democrats– including President Biden himself– have shown support for Vice President Kamala Harris’s candidacy. Although Harris received the necessary number of delegates for the nomination early on in her campaign, she was officially named the Democratic nominee at the Democratic Convention on August 19 through 22. In early August, Harris announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate for the election in November.The Republican National Convention saw the official confirmation of Donald Trump as Republican presidential nominee and J.D. Vance as his running mate. A few days earlier, Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt during a rally, marking the first presidential assassination attempt in the U.S. since Ronald Reagan in 1981. The former president has seen an influx of support since the rally, widening his lead in recent polls.
Trump has faced numerous legal challenges, including questions about his election eligibility, two House impeachments, and nearly 100 criminal charges related to election interference, attempting to overturn the 2020 election results, and falsifying records. On May 30, 2024, he was convicted on 34 felony counts for falsifying business records linked to a 2016 sex scandal. Despite being the first U.S. president to be a convicted felon, he remains eligible for reelection and retains strong Republican support, with many viewing the charges as politically motivated. In late June, the Supreme Court ruled that presidents have absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts, complicating Trump's federal election interference case and has raised concerns about the potential for future presidential misconduct.
The rise of independent voters
As of just weeks before the election 2024, polls in swing states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin showed Donald Trump leading in five of the seven battleground states by a slim margin. The widespread lack of enthusiasm surrounding the two major presidential nominees has led to increased interest in alternative options. This sentiment has resulted in a record share of independent electorates, reflecting growing dissatisfaction with the traditional two-party system. Among the prominent independent candidates are former Green Party member Cornel West and former Democratic candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., both of whom have garnered significant attention and support.Support for independent candidates varies significantly by generation. Over half of Generation Z and Millennials now identify as independent, indicating a substantial shift in political alignment among younger voters. Moreover, more than 40 percent of these younger voters have considered casting their ballots for an independent candidate in the forthcoming election, suggesting a broader trend of disillusionment with the established political system and a desire for alternative choices in the political arena.
What issues do voters care about?
With jobs being a top political issue for voters in the United States, a lot of weight is placed on job creation in discourse surrounding Presidents and Congress. Some regard the number of jobs a president creates as being directly tied to how successful they have been in office. Additionally, policies such as tax reform, deregulation, and infrastructure investments are important to voters due to their influence over business environments, job creation, and unemployment. Although the U.S. economy has been strengthening, many Americans do not feel this in their everyday life. Across the country, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has continued to rise and with it the cost of living, leaving many Americans struggling to make ends meet.Other significant economic indicators among voters are taxes and government spending. While Republicans would prefer to see government spending on programs like Social Security or Medicare reduced, those in the Democratic Party are more likely to advocate raising taxes on the richest individuals to compensate for the deficit. Despite the tendency of both parties to blame each other for financial issues affecting the nation, a significant amount of debt has been accrued under presidents of both parties.
Abortion remains a controversial subject across the U.S., thus securing its place as a powerful campaign tool moving into 2024. In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, granting states the power to completely ban abortion if desired. The ruling has been a mobilizing force for voters, and is likely to remain a determining issue throughout the election. Additionally, in response to continued mass shootings across the country, the debate surrounding gun ownership has widened, with nearly twice as many Democrats advocating for stricter gun regulations than Republicans. Other partisan issues include climate change and the environment, as well as healthcare access, LGBTQ rights, and immigration. As one of the nation’s longest-standing debates, the issue of immigration lingers on across the country. Alongside support for restrictive immigration intensifying among Republicans, support from Democrats for open immigration has grown. The worsening polarization between the two parties has hindered productive reform, resulting in dissatisfaction from all sides.
Trust in the age of misinformation
Bolstered by diminishing trust in the government and its agencies, a considerable number of Republicans refused to acknowledge the outcomes of the 2020 election. This resulted in Trump supporters storming the Capitol building during the certification of the election results on January 6th, 2021. Trump's accountability in the Capitol attacks remains a politically divisive debate, with many convinced that Trump's role in the events should disqualify him from running for president in 2024. Although nearly one-third of voters believed the 2020 election contained high levels of voter fraud , trust in the 2024 election results remains to be seen.Additionally, the emergence of partisan media outlets on both ends of the political spectrum has given rise to increased concern surrounding disinformation and fake news, which has only been exacerbated by the advancement of artificial intelligence. As of 2023, only around 10 percent of Republicans in the United States \trusted the media to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly, compared to 68 percent of Democrats. Republican and Democratic voters place their trust in different political news sources, making it all the more difficult to ensure accurate information, build trust, and bridge political divides.