Primary energy demand global share by type & scenario 2050

In 2021, oil, coal, and natural gas combined accounted for a 79 percent share of the primary energy demand worldwide. By 2050, however, the share of primary energy demand from fossil fuels is forecast to decline considerably, down to 63 percent in the Reference Case Scenario (RCS), and 49 percent in the Accelerated Energy Decarbonation Scenario (AEDS). Conversely, the primary energy demand for renewables is forecast to drastically increase by 2050 compared to 2021, in both the RCS and the AEDS.

Distribution of primary energy demand worldwide in 2021 with a forecast for 2050, by scenario and source

Characteristic	Oil	Coal	Natural gas	Bioenergy*	Nuclear	Hydro	Renewables**
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

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Release date

January 2023

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Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2021

Supplementary notes

*Traditional and modern biomass is included.
**Solar, wind, tidal, and geothermal energy are included.
***RCS refers to the Reference Case Scenario.
****AEDS refers to the Accelerated Energy Decarbonization Scenario.

Percentages are calculated and rounded according to values in million metric tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe). The sum of the figures for 2050 in the AEDS do not equate to 100 percent due to rounding.

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