How can India reap its demographic dividend?
India’s young population with a median age of 28.4 years is considered its demographic dividend. However, the role of this expanding population in India’s GDP growth depends among other factors, on the size of the working population in the total population. India’s working-age population to the total population will be over 65 percent in 2031, but this demographic dividend is supposed to decline thereafter.Harnessing this dividend requires solving challenges such as unemployment, shortcomings in skilling, and healthcare. Economists point to increased labor force participation in manufacturing as a prerequisite for reaping the benefits of this dividend.
Shifting demographics
A commercialized economy, development of infrastructure, and family planning programs have resulted in significant changes in traditional Indian family structures. While still primarily patrilinear, the large joint families of over eight members have disintegrated into smaller nuclear families over the decades. Economic considerations, such as the cost of raising children; increased education levels for women giving them more control over their reproductive choices, and changing societal norms have played a role in reducing fertility rates and the desire for smaller family units.Migration is an important indicator for changing socio-economic and political conditions and existing disparities. Various factors like employment, marriage, standard of living, calamities, or conflicts influence the movement of people. Employment is the key reason for internal migration for men in India. However, marriage is a far larger driver of migration than jobs especially for women who move to different villages within their states after getting married. As per government estimates, one in three urban Indians is a ‘migrant’ but mostly intra-state.
Why does the Census matter?
Demographic transitions warrant policies that can leverage demographic change, ideally supporting development goals of the country. The repository of reliable demographic data comes from the census, which is a decennial exercise in India.It provides crucial information for outlining policies and social programs on various levels of government. However, the last census in the country was conducted in 2011. The Census 2021 process was first delayed owing to the COVID-19 pandemic and is now expected to be conducted after the national elections in 2024.
