Finland: post-coronavirus GDP growth forecast 2021-2026

According to a forecast, Finland's total output is expected to increase by 3.5 percent in 2021. The Finnish economy already weakened in the end of 2019, and the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in a fall of 2.9 percent in 2020. However, the preliminary figures indicate that the contraction in the Finnish economy was less severe than in most other European countries. The GDP growth is projected at 1.5 percent in 2022 and at 1.5 percent in 2023 after the economic recovery from the current crisis.

Growth forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) in Finland from 2021 to 2026

Characteristic	Projected GDP change
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Release date

April 2022

More information

Region

Finland

Survey time period

Sprinfg 2022

Supplementary notes

The source adds the following information: "The forecast is based on the assumption that the COVID-19 incidence will fall to a low level by summer 2021 as a result of restrictions, vaccinations and seasonal variation of the disease. Restrictions can be relaxed and lifted when the disease is no longer spreading under control."

"The medium-term economic outlook can be estimated on the basis of the potential output, which is considered to define the growth prerequisites for the economy. In its assessments of potential output, the Ministry of Finance uses the production function method jointly developed by the European Commission and EU Member States, in which potential output growth is divided into projections of potential labour input, capital and total factor productivity. Potential output and output gap are latent variables, the assessment of which involves uncertainties, especially during a strong economic cycle and under conditions of rapid changes in the production structure."