• Finland: post-coronavirus GDP growth forecast 2020-2025

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According to a forecast, Finland's total output is expected to decrease by 3.3 percent in 2020. The Finnish economy already weakened in the end of 2019, and the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is expected to result in a sharp fall of the GDP in 2020. However, the preliminary figures indicate that the contraction in the Finnish economy was less severe than in most other European countries. The GDP growth is projected at 2.5 percent in 2021 and at two percent in 2022 after the economic recovery from the current crisis.

Growth forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) in Finland from 2020 to 2025

	Projected GDP change
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Source

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Release date

December 2020

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Region

Finland

Survey time period

Winter 2020

Supplementary notes

The source adds the following information: "The forecast is based on the assumption that stringent restrictions will be imposed at the end of the year to press down the incidence rate of COVID-19 infections, which will retard economic growth. Domestic demand for services will remain weak and foreign trade suffers from the continued pandemic."

"The economy is expected to recover when the uncertainty caused by the pandemic is dispelled in the course of 2021. Growth in demand items that will accelerate towards the end of 2021 will give an additional boost to the economy in 2022. "

"Medium-term prospects can be assessed in terms of potential output which is assumed to determine the necessary preconditions for growth. In estimating potential output, the Ministry of Finance applies the production function method, developed jointly by the EU Commission and the Member States, in which the growth in potential output is divided into estimates of the development of potential labour input, capital and total productivity. The potential output and output gap are unobservable variables, the estimation of which is subject to uncertainty, especially during intense economic cycles and rapid changes in the structure of production"