The Cannabis market comprises the sale of various products made of cannabis to both private end consumers and healthcare entities in all the countries where these products were legalized. It covers three markets: Recreational Cannabis, Medical Cannabis, and Therapeutic Cannabis. The geographical scope varies depending on the exact cannabis product as not all types of cannabis are legalized in each country. For example, in Germany, the medical and therapeutic use of cannabis is legal, whereas recreational use is not legal.
The Cannabis market can be considered from three different application perspectives, "spiritual purpose," "health condition management," and "wellness management."
The Recreational Cannabis market includes the consumption of cannabis for non-medicinal reasons, such as boosting physical performance, pursuing creative activities, and experiencing spirituality. Recreational Cannabis can be consumed in the form of extracts, dried cannabis, edibles, and beverages.
The Medical Cannabis market includes cannabinoid-based medicine, either licensed or unlicensed, which is supplied through the healthcare system and prescribed by a doctor with the primary focus of mitigating serious disease symptoms. It can include higher tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) levels of cannabidiol (CBD).
The Therapeutic Cannabis market covers cannabinoid-based therapeutic products with low THC levels. These products are used for medicinal purposes and are intended to improve the quality of life, e.g., by reducing stress and/or anxiety. Prescribed and non-prescribed products are included in our scope and can be consumed through oils, capsules, topicals, e-liquid, edibles, and flowers.
The key players in the industry include Trulieve, Tilray, Aphria, HEXO Corp and others.
The maturity of the Cannabis market varies across the globe mainly due to differing legal environments and public attitudes towards cannabis. Some countries such as Canada and the United States have adopted fully regulated frameworks that allow cultivation, consumption, and retail distribution of various cannabis products. There are other countries that have more limited frameworks that allow the cultivation of cannabis, but have not legalizied retail sales (e.g., South Africa). Regulations can also differ regarding how cannabis is used. Some countries allow consumption of products that contain high tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) strictly for medical use, while there are other countries that also permit the consumption of high THC products for recreational use.
Legalization of cannabis is an important source of economic growth as it contributes to the growing tax revenue, increasing demands on the construction industry and to the creation of new work places. In addition to economic benefits, legalization of cannabis leads to more transparent tracking of its supply chain and therefore reduces the counterfaiting activities and overall criminal rates. The majority of consumers will shift from illicit markets to legal ones and potential users will be more eager to use cannabis as it will not be subject to penalties. Apart from benefits, there are however potential negative consquences of the growing cannabis market mainly for the environment. In this regard, the governments have to take a lead in shaping the more sustainable production infrastructure.
We believe that loosening of legal restrictions in the coming years, rising demand and social acceptance as well as increasing investment flows in infrastructure, technology, and real estate around the world will lead to considerable growth in the overall market. COVID-19 has also contributed to the higher usage of cannabis mainly due to increased levels of stress and anxiety along with lack of social isolation.
The Cannabis market is still in an emerging phase with considerable potential for growth as it can bring greater benefits to citizens, governments, and companies in the future. The industry will evolve dramatically in the future with more and more individuals and revenues being involved in it.
Data encompasses B2B and B2C enterprises. Figures are based on companies' revenues, funding values and global consumer survey data. Revenues include retail, sales and taxes.
Modeling approach / Market size:
Market sizes are determined by a Top-Down approach, based on a specific rationale for each market market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, third-party data. Next, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations such as tobacco spending per capita, medical product spending per capita, consumer spending and consumer spending for recreation purposes, population. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. For example, S-Curve function, ARIMA time series model and exponential curve function.
The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.