War in Ukraine: impact on Russian ad growth 2022

The Russian advertising market was forecast to lose five percent of its annual spending each month of the active military conflict in Ukraine in 2022. Under the scenario that the escalation peaks in April and media spending starts recovering in May, total investments in advertising in Russia were expected to decline by 11 percent compared to 2021. The most negative scenario, in case of no improvements in relations between Russia and the West, suggested that the market could lose up to 50 percent in 2022.

Preliminary forecast of the advertising market growth in Russia in 2022, by scenario

Characteristic	Advertising spending growth
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Release date

March 2022

More information

Region

Russia

Survey time period

2022

Supplementary notes

*The source considered this scenario unlikely.
**Based on a model.
The figures are approximate.

The source specified the following information: "In the current situation, many different factors impact the economy and the Russian advertising market - the military conflict in Ukraine itself, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble, the oil price, the time when logistics chains recover, and the time when international companies return. In our opinion, the main factor which would mark the 'bottom' of the crisis would be the end of the military action in Ukraine and the respective reduction in escalation with the West. Depending on the month when that would happen, we have made estimates of the dynamics of media investments in 2022 relative to 2021."

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