Euro 2016 : team win probability

This diagram represents the chances of victory for the 24 countries participating in the 2016 UEFA European Football Championship hosted by France, according to Goldman Sachs. In that year, Germany would have had almost a 20 percent chance of winning the competition.

Probability of victory for the 24 countries participating in the 2016 UEFA European Football Championship organised in France*

Characteristic	Probability of victory at Euro 2016
France	23.1%
Germany	19.9%
Spain	13.6%
England	10.5%
Portugal	8%
Belgium	5.7%
Russia	2.6%
Croatia	2.2%
Ukraine	1.9%
Czech Republic	1.7%
Poland	1.5%
Italy	1.5%
Turkey	1.3%
Switzerland	1.2%
Austria	1.1%
Ireland	1.1%
Romania	1%
Sweden	0.9%
Slovakia	0.7%
Hungary	0.3%
Iceland	0.2%
Wales	0.1%
Northern Ireland	0.1%
Albania	0%

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Release date

June 2016

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Region

France

Survey time period

2016

Supplementary notes

* The source does not give any information on percentage points above 100, which implies rounding, in particular for Albania's percentage.

More information on the methodology at this link: http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/macroeconomic-insights/euro-cup-2016/index.html

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