What is the probability of developing lung cancer?
In the United States, the lifetime probability of developing lung cancer is around 6.2 percent for men and 5.8 percent for women. However, the probability of developing lung cancer increases significantly with age. For example, the probability that a man aged 0 to 49 years develops lung cancer is only .1 percent, while the probability for a man aged 70 years and older is 5.6 percent. Incidence rates for lung cancer are higher among men than women and highest among non-Hispanic Black men. It is estimated that in 2023 there will be a total of 238,340 new lung cancer cases in the United States, with the highest numbers found in the states of Florida, California, and Texas.Deaths from lung cancer
In 2023, it is estimated that lung cancer will be responsible for around 127,070 deaths in the United States. Death rates for lung cancer are higher for men than women, with this difference especially large among the non-Hispanic Black population. From 2016 to 2020 the death rate for lung cancer among non-Hispanic Black men was 54 per 100,000 population compared to a rate of 29 per 100,000 population for non-Hispanic Black women. Although lung cancer remains the deadliest form of cancer in the United States, death rates from lung cancer have decreased significantly over the past couple of decades. Nevertheless, lung cancer has one of the lowest survival rates of all cancers with only around 23 percent of those diagnosed expected to live five years after diagnosis. Five-year survival rates increase greatly depending on how quickly the cancer is diagnosed, highlighting the importance of screening, especially among older smokers.Smoking and lung cancer
The decrease in lung cancer death rates mentioned above can be attributed to improvements in cancer treatments and to a reduction in smoking rates in the United States. Smoking is the leading cause of lung cancer, with cigarette smoking attributing to around 81 percent of all deaths from lung, bronchus, and trachea cancer among those aged 30 years and older. It is estimated that men who smoke are 25 times more likely to develop lung cancer than men who do not smoke, while women who smoke are almost 26 times more likely to develop lung cancer than non-smoking women. In 2019, around 14 percent of adults in the United States smoked cigarettes, a significant decrease compared to 23 percent in the year 2000. In addition to not smoking and avoiding secondhand smoke, testing your home for radon is an important way to prevent lung cancer. Radon, a naturally occurring gas that can become trapped in homes or buildings, is the second leading cause of lung cancer in the United States.
