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Impact of the coronavirus on total tourist arrivals in Italy 2020-2023, by scenario

A research from September 2020 analyzed the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on international and domestic tourist arrivals in Italy from 2020 to 2023. The study presented three alternative scenarios. The baseline scenario considered a complete stop of travels to and within Italy from the beginning of March to the end of June 2020, followed by a slow recovery during the following months. In this case, Italy would experience a drop of 53 million international and domestic arrivals in 2020, compared to the previous year. Then, tourist arrivals will return to the level of 2019 only in 2023.

The upside scenario, based on the same timespan of the baseline, but considering a faster recovery, forecasts a decrease of 44 million inbound arrivals in 2020. Finally, the downside scenario, supposing a slower recovery, estimated a decrease of 69 million tourist arrivals in 2020. For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

Estimated impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on international and domestic tourist arrivals in Italy from 2020 to 2023, by scenario

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Release date

September 2020



Survey time period


Special properties

Overnight guests

Supplementary notes

All data are compared to 2019 figures.

The source specifies that all the scenarios considered that it was not possible to take international travels from China since January 2020 as well as from Japan and South Korea since February 2020.

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