Projected way to COVID-19 herd immunity in the U.S. during 2021 by type

For February 21, 2021, it was estimated that around 33 percent of the U.S. population was immune to COVID-19. According to the latest modeling, herd immunity - if estimated at around 70 percent of a population being immune to the virus - will probably not be reached in the course of 2021. Several reasons can be mentioned, among others: new and more infectious variants of the virus, vaccination hesitancy, and the lack of a vaccine for children. However, it is still not totally clear what percentage of a population needs to be immune to COVID-19 for there to be herd immunity against the disease. As the data shows, it is possible that from summer 2021 on something near herd immunity - or: a state closer to normal life - could be reached.

Projected path to reach estimated COVID-19 herd immunity at 70% in the United States as of February 21, 2021*

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Release date

February 2021


United States

Survey time period

as of February 21, 2021

Supplementary notes

* Projections and estimates of COVID-19 developments are an ongoing process, often covered almost in real time. Thus, the values in this statistic and in the original source can differ significantly due to short-term changes and updates.
For more information about the methodology please visit the website of the source.

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Statistics on "Coronavirus (COVID-19): vaccines and vaccination campaign"

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