World: annual birth rate, death rate, and rate of natural population change 1950-2100

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in an increase in the global death rate, but had little to no significant impact on birth rates, causing population growth to dip slightly. On a global level, population growth is determined by the difference between the birth and death rate, and this is known as the rate of natural change - on a national or regional level, population change is also affected by migration.

Ongoing trends

Since the middle of the 20th century, the global birth rate has been well above the global death rate, however, the gap between these figures has grown closer in recent years. The death rate is projected to overtake the birth rate in the 2080s, which means that the world's population will then go into decline. In the future, death rates will increase due to ageing populations across the world and a plateau in life expectancy.

Why does this change?

There are many reasons for falling death and birth rates in recent decades. Falling death rates have been driven by a reduction in infant and child mortality, as well as increased life expectancy. Falling birth rates were also driven by the reduction in child mortality, whereby mothers would have fewer children as survival rates rose - other factors include the drop in child marriage, improved contraception access and efficacy, and women choosing to have children later in life.