Value forecast of plant-based meat sector exports from Australia FY 2030, by scenario

Scenario 1: Conscious consumers’ choice, in which the Australian plant-based meat sector grows conservatively between 2020 and 2030. Australians, would, on average consume 2.4kg of plant-based meat products each year,2 most of which would be imported. But conventional meat would remain the primary choice for most consumers.

Scenario 2: Popular and accessible alternative, where the Australian plant-based meat sector maintains strong growth. In this scenario, with an increase in consumers identifying as ‘flexitarian’, per capita consumption would rise to 6.1kg of plant-based meat per year.3 Most of this demand would be met by domestic manufacturing.

Scenario 3: Mass-market commodity, which was modelled such that the popularity of the plant-based meat category accelerates rapidly through to 2030. A decline in conventional meat consumption would reflect more consumers eating meat alternatives as a dietary staple, with the average Australian consuming 15.5kg of plant-based meat.