U.S. transportation CO2 emissions outlook by vehicle 2050

Projections show that light-duty vehicles will be the biggest contributors to U.S. transportation-related emissions over the coming decades under current laws and regulations. Under this scenario, emissions from light-duty vehicles (i.e. passenger cars) would reduce by 20 percent to roughly 760 million metric tons of carbon dioxide.

Projections for transportation-related carbon dioxide emissions in the United States from 2022 to 2050, by vehicle type (in million metric tons)

Characteristic	Light-Duty Vehicles	Commercial Light Trucks	Bus Transportation	Freight Trucks	Rail, Passenger	Rail, Freight	Shipping, Domestic	Shipping, International	Recreational Boats	Air	Military Use	Lubricants	Pipeline Fuel
2050	757	64	12	361	3	30	5	60	12	297	31	5	37
2045	743	61	13	358	3	30	6	60	12	276	31	5	35
2040	756	58	14	352	3	30	6	60	12	257	31	5	34
2035	796	57	14	354	3	31	6	61	12	240	31	5	34
2030	858	58	15	368	3	30	6	61	12	231	31	5	32
2025	927	60	15	381	4	33	7	63	13	221	31	5	38
2022	950	63	14	403	4	33	7	68	13	202	31	5	48

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Release date

March 2023

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Region

United States

Survey time period

2022

Supplementary notes

*Commercial trucks 8,501 to 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight rating.

Projections for 2050 are from the AEO 2023 reference case, which provides a baseline for exploring long-term trends, based on current laws and regulations as of November 2022.

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