The chance of the U.S. economy experiencing a recession within the next 12 months is 26 percent, Bloomberg reported November 6. The probability was based on a model the publication created. Recession odds were down 1 percent from last month. Though it’s higher than last November’s reading of 23 percent, this month’s odds are much lower than December’s probability of recession, which was 49 percent.
The probability Bloomberg used to create the percentages was made by economists Yelena Shulyatyeva Eliza Winger and Andrew Husby. They combined a variety of data, including the financial markets, instruments of underlying stress and economic conditions. The model likely decreased the chance of recession by 1 percent because of the stabling conditions in the financial market.