According to poll averages calculated by Real Clear Politics, Joe Biden might lead the national polls, but the picture looks very different in early state primaries. As of Feb 2, Biden polled behind competitor for the Democratic presidential nomination, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), in Iowa. In New Hampshire, Sanders had an even bigger lead over the former vice president, poll averages from Jan 30 show.
Overall, the top four contestants are polling closer together in the two states than nationally, with Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and former mayor Pete Buttigieg also not far behind. In addition, many Iowa Democrats have said they might change their minds about who they are voting for, adding a potential element of surprise.
The Iowa caucus is held on Feb 3, with the New Hampshire primary following the next week. Both events have in the past been relevant for predicting a candidate’s future performance in the race for the Democratic nomination.