Child, old-age, and total dependency ratio in China 1950-2100

In 2020, the child and old-age dependency ratios in China ranged at around 25.9 and 18.2 percent respectively, summing up to a total dependency ratio of 44.1 percent. While the child dependency ratio is expected to drop slightly and then remain stable, the old-age dependency ratio will rise steadily in coming decades.

Age demographics in China

With a populace of 1.4 billion people by the end of 2023, China stands the country with the second largest population in the world. Since its foundation in 1949, the PRC has experienced high population growth. With the beginning of the reform period in the end of the 1970s, population growth decreased steadily. Finally, China's population size peaked in 2021 and entered a declining path. Falling birth rates in combination with higher life expectancy led to a continuously increasing median age of the population in China over the past five decades. The median age of the Chinese population is expected to rise further and to reach 50 years by the middle of the century.

Development of the dependency ratio

China has enjoyed a continuously growing work force since the late 1970s. Simultaneously, the total dependency ratio in China decreased from 80 percent in 1970 to about 37 percent in 2010. However, an important turning point was reached in 2011, as the total dependency ratio was set to increase again after 30 years of population bonus. As can be seen from the above graph, until 2100, child-dependency is estimated to remain steady around 15 to 20 percent. Old-age dependency on the other hand is expected to grow from about 12 percent in 2010 to 69 percent in 2060, implying a growing number of senior citizens that need support from the working population. The shift of age demographics in the near future in China is bound to have ineligible economical and social impacts. To learn more about age demographics in China, take a look at our dossier aging population in China.