Children and old-age dependency ratio in China 2100

The graph shows the child and old-age dependency ratio in China from 1990 to 2010, with forecasts up until 2100. In 2010, the child dependency ratio in China had ranged at 25.5 percent.

Age demographics in China – additional information

With a populace of 1.39 billion people, China stands the country with the largest population in the world. Over the past four decades, the median age of the population in China has increased rapidly and is expected to reach an average age of almost 50 by 2070. Since its foundation in 1949, the PRC has experienced high birth rates. With the exception of the great famine in the early 1960s, population growth in China has remained steady.

China has enjoyed a continuously growing work force since the late 1970s. Simultaneously, the total dependency ratio in China decreased from almost 70 percent in 1980 to about 38 percent in 2016. However, an important turning point was reached in 2011, as total dependency ratio was set to increase again after 30 years of population bonus. As can be seen from the above graph, until 2100, child-dependency is estimated to remain steady between 20 and 30 percent. Old-age dependency on the other hand is expected to grow from about 12 percent in 2010 to over 50 percent in 2060, implying a growing number of senior citizens that need support from the working population.

The shift of age demographics in the near future in China is bound to have ineligible economical and social impacts. To learn more about age demographics in China, take a look at our dossier aging population in China.

Children and old-age dependency ratio in China from 1990 to 2100

Child dependency ratioOld-age dependency ratio
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Sources

Release date

June 2019

Region

China

Survey time period

1990 to 2010

Supplementary notes

The dependency ratio denotes the relationship between economic dependent age groups (people who are either too old or too young to work) to those of a working age. Those who are defined as being able to work, by the source, are those between the ages of 15 and 64. The dependency ratio indicates how great a burden is placed on those of a working age by those of a non-working age.
The old-age dependency rate is even higher considering the current retirement age of 60 for men, 55 for female civil servants and 50 for other female workers.

Figures for the dependency ratio for the years 1990 to 2010 were taken from China Statistical Yearbook 2012, page 102.

Estimated figures from 2020 to 2100 have been based on a medium variant model.

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