Total population of China 1980-2028

According to preliminary data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in January 2023, the Chinese population decreased by 850,000 people to around 1,411.75 million in 2022. This was the first population decline in China since 1961. As the birth rate in China has been declining over the last decades, the only point in question was when exactly population growth would turn negative for the first time. China arrived at this turning point earlier and more clearly than expected, with IMF estimates from October 2022 still only expecting a decline by about 50,000 people for the whole year.

Population development in China

As of mid 2021, China was still the country with the largest population worldwide, closely followed by India, which ranked second with a population of about 1.39 billion people. As population growth in India is higher than in China, India is expected to overtake China as the most populous country in the world in 2023. Due to several mechanisms put into place by the Chinese government as well as changing circumstances in the working and social environment of the Chinese people, population growth has subsided over the past decades, displaying an annual population growth rate of -0.6 percent in 2022. Nevertheless, compared to the world population in total, China held a share of about 18 percent of the overall global population in 2022.

China's aging population

In terms of demographic developments, the birth control efforts of the Chinese government had considerable effects on the demographic pyramid in China. Upon closer examination of the age distribution, a clear trend of an aging population becomes visible. In order to curb the negative effects of an aging population, the Chinese government abolished the one-child policy in 2015, which had been in effect since 1979, and introduced a three-child policy in May 2021. However, many Chinese parents nowadays are reluctant to have a second or third child, as is the case in most of the developed countries in the world. The number of births in China varied in the years following the abolishment of the one-child policy, but did not increase considerably. Among the reasons most prominent for parents not having more children are the rising living costs and costs for child care, growing work pressure, a growing trend towards self-realization and individualism, and changing social behaviors.