Sub-Saharan Africa: climate migrant outlook 2050

Sub-Saharan Africa was projected to have over 70 million climate migrants by 2050, considering a pessimistic scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions and unequal development. This would be the highest number of displacements worldwide due to climate conditions. Among African regions, West Africa might see the highest number of climate migrants in all three scenarios.

Projected number of internal climate migrants displaced in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, by region and scenario (in millions)

Characteristic	East Africa	West Africa	Central Africa	Southern Africa
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Release date

October 2021

More information

Region

Africa

Survey time period

2018

Special properties

average figures

Supplementary notes

According to the original source, "the three climate migration scenarios are defined as:
Pessimistic: reference scenario, with high global greenhouse gas emissions and an unequal development pathway;
More inclusive development: equally high emissions, but a more equal development pathway.
More climate-friendly: lower emissions, combined with an unequal development pathway."

Climate-driven migration refers to "migration that can be attributed largely to the slow-onset impacts of climate change on livelihoods owing to shifts in water availability and crop productivity, or to factors such as sea-level rise or storm surge".

Figures only include internal displacement. They do not consider cross-border migration, or shorter-term mobility (such as seasonal or cyclical migration).

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