Global elections in 2024 - Statistics & Facts

South Asia's super election year

No other region has such a high concentration of elections this year than South Asia: home to almost two billion people. In 2024, seven of the world’s ten most populous countries have national elections, and three are the neighbors of Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India. Bangladesh kicked off these elections on January 7, with the ruling Awami League winning its fourth consecutive election, and Shiekh Hasina extending her title as the longest-serving elected female leader in history. International observers claimed the election was neither free nor fair, as it was marred by violent protests, opponent suppression, and accusations of vote rigging, while others claimed Bangladesh was now a one-party state. However, things changed drastically in June, when the announcement of government job quotas that were more likely to favor supporters of the Awami League was met by a series of student protests that snowballed into an anti-government uprising. Several hundred people were killed, the majority of whom were protestors killed by authorities, while tens of thousands more were injured or arrested. In early August, the movement's leaders refused to negotiate with Hasina, who then resigned and fled to India, before security forces stood down and allowed the protestors to take control of the government. Nobel Peace Prize laureat Muhammad Yunus was placed in charge of an interim government (a move agreed to by the military, President, and student movement) and a new snap election is expected by the year's end.

In Pakistan, February's election took part in the midst of another political crisis, caused by the ouster of former Prime Minister, Imran Khan, in 2022, in a move believed to have been orchestrated by the military establishment. Khan has since survived an assassination attempt, before he was later arrested and sentenced to 10 years in prison, while his party, the PTI, was banned from running in 2024's election. Despite these and other methods of suppression, former-PTI candidates running as independents won the largest number of seats in the election, and it was only when reserved seats were allocated that the establishment-backed party could form a coalition government, but Khan’s shadow still looms large in the background of Pakistani politics. In the smaller South Asian countries, 2024’s elections still have significant implications given the economic crises in Sri Lanka and Bhutan, or the Maldives’ political realignment from India to China.

Yet, with over 600 million votes counted, India’s election is undoubtedly the largest of the year, and took place between mid-April and early-June. The Bharatiya Janata Party and Prime Minister Narendra Modi were incredibly popular after being in power for the past decade, and many predicted a landslide victory for the incumbent party. Top issues included poverty and education, while farmers’ protests for price controls dominated the news early in the year, as did protests from non-Hindus, especially Muslims, following a series of exclusionary actions and policies made by the BJP. The results of the election proved to be something of a shock - the BJP maintained its status as India's largest party, but lost its absolute majority, meaning, for the first time, it will depend on support from its NDA coalition to rule. The election was also seen as something of a referendum on the Indian National Congress, the dominant party since independence and the party of the Gandhi family - some predicted further decline of the INC and its potential dissolution, but the INC performed much better than expected, and will return as the Official Opposition. Despite the BJP's underperformance, it and Narendra Modi will remain the most powerful force in Indian politics moving forward, however, as Modi is 73 years old, there is some talk of him stepping aside to allow new leadership to take over when he turns 75 next year, although this is not guaranteed.

Elsewhere in Asia

To the east, Taiwan held elections in January, with Vice President William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party winning the presidential election, although the Kuomintang (historically Taiwan’s most dominant party) took a plurality of seats in the legislature. Initially the Kuomintang and People’s Party sought to field a joint candidate against Lai, but disagreements turned the election into a three-way race, which was likely instrumental in handing Lai victory. This election was overshadowed by China, which has been more vocal in its pursuit of reunification in recent years, despite recent improvements in economic cooperation. In the buildup to the election, there was political pressure from Beijing, nearby military exercises, and waves of misinformation thought to have originated on the mainland. It remains to be seen how cross-Strait relations will develop in the coming months and years.

Further west, Iran held its first legislative elections since the Mahsa Amini protests of 2022, although this was a subdued affair with low turnout, the banning of most moderate figures, and ended in a sweeping victory for the Principalists (conservatives). Iran also held a presidential election on June 28, following the accidental death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May. Turnout was still low, but the first round of voting returned a surprise result, where Reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, was more popular than his three Principalist rivals. However, no candidate secured a majority, and the two top candidates contested a runoff, which was again won by Pezeshkian. Despite Pezeshkian being a more progressive candidate, power in Iran ultimately lies with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and Western observers do not expect a dramatic improvement in relations with Iran any time soon, particularly given the escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel.

Indonesia also held its general election in February, where its large but relatively young electorate meant the three presidential candidates targeted their campaigns at Gen Z and Millennial voters, addressing issues including employment, poverty, and sustainability. Retired army general Prabowo Subianto ultimately won the presidential election with almost 60 percent of the vote, while his party was just the third-largest in Indonesia’s legislature. To the north, South Korea held its parliamentary election in April, where the highest turnout in over three decades saw the incumbent president’s party suffer a heavy defeat.

Europe: a right-wing ascendancy?

Europe’s largest election this year was the European Union’s Parliamentary election in June. Top issues for voters included migration, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the economy, while there was a notable decline in interest in environmental matters compared to previous years due to its economic impact. Going into the election, there was a large focus on the prospects of far-right parties, as 2024 elections in Portugal already saw the far-right make unprecedented gains; while a pro-Russia candidate won Slovakia’s presidential election; in addition to the gradual growth of support for far-right parties in larger countries such as France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands (all founding members) in recent years. Ultimately the center-right European People's Party held its position as the largest group, and with Ursula von der Leyen's re-election it will lead the parliament's ruling coalition moving forward, alongside the Socialists & Democrats and Renew, with support from the Greens. However, the largest takeaway was that projections of far-right gains materialized - after some reshuffling in the month that followed, three groups with far-right factions emerged, with a combined 187 seats of the 266-seat opposition bloc.

The European election also had significant consequences in France, where the strong performance of Marine Le Pen's National Rally and the poor performance of President Macron's L'Europe Ensemble party saw the president dissolve the parliament and call for new legislative elections later that month. In the first round of voting, the National Rally won the largest share of the vote, but were closely followed by a new left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front (NFP), while Macron's Ensemble alliance fell to third place. These three parties each received between 20 and 30 percent of the vote, and due to France's electoral system, an unprecidented number of races went to a second round of voting, and a large number of these were three-way races. Because of this, in the week between the votes, both the Ensemble alliance and NPF worked tactically to try and prevent a National Rally victory, by withdrawing a large number of candidates from three-way races to give their respective counterpart the best chance of winning. This tactic was incredibly effective, and in a shocking result to many, the NFP emerged as the bloc with the most seats, followed by the Ensemble alliance as the second largest, and the National Rally in third place. Yet, no bloc took a majority of seats, and cooperation between the NFP and Ensemble ended as their ideological and personal differences came to the fore. Such divisions could paralyze the Assembly, making it ineffective in the months or years to come (France's constitution only allows one legislative election in a 12 month period), however right-leaning lawmakers voted on July 18. to give President Macron a greater role in selecting the new Prime Minister and government, possibly bringing an end to the deadlock

Elsewhere in Europe

The United Kingdom hed its general election on July 4, with the Labour Party returning to power after 14 years of Conservative rule. In 2019, under Boris Johnson, the Conservatives won their largest election victory in decades. However, a series of scandals during the pandemic, the legacy of austerity measures, and numerous economic crises, among other issues, has saw their popularity fall significantly. A decline in support for the Scottish Nationalist Party, and the new far-right Reform Party's syphoning of a lot of Conservative support saw the Labour Party win 412 of the 650 seats in Parliament, while the Conservatives' tally fell to 121. Due to the discrepancy between the share of the vote and the number of seats won (i.e. Reform won 14 percent of the votes but less than one percent of seats) the UK's first-past-the-post system has been called into question, but the advantage it gives to winning parties means this is unlikely to change any time soon.

The largest domestic election in Europe took place in Russia (and parts of occupied-Ukraine), where Vladimir Putin won with almost 90 percent of the vote: his largest margin yet. This will keep him in power until at least 2030 (potentially 2036), after the two-term limit was reset in 2020. This election was considered neither free nor fair by international observers, as one month before the election, the only anti-war candidate was removed from the ballot, while Putin’s most prominent critic, Alexei Navalny, died under suspicious circumstances in a Siberian prison.

Africa: new challenges where democracy is already-weak

Political stability in Africa has come under increased pressure in recent years, with military coups taking power in seven countries since 2020, forming a so-called “coup belt” now stretching across the continent. Elections were scheduled in three of these countries in 2024, although those in Burkina Faso and Mali have been indefinitely postponed, while Mahamat Déby, son of president Idriss Déby (who ruled from 1990 until his death in 2021), won the presidential election in Chad's contested election in May, extending the Déby family's 34-year reign.

There are also notable elections in countries adjacent to the coup belt. Senegal held a presidential election in March - a political crisis materialized when opposition candidates were imprisoned and the president tried to postpone the election until December, but pro-democracy protests saw the election go ahead, the imprisoned figures were freed, and they are now set to become president and prime minister respectively. South Sudan will hold its first ever democratic elections since becoming an independent country in 2011. Ghana, the regions most stable democracy, will hold a general election in December, where the campaign will likely be dominated by its ongoing economic and energy crises. Elsewhere, EU leaders (especially Italy) will be following presidential elections in Algeria, Tunisia, and Rwanda, following major energy and immigration agreements made in 2023. In Rwanda, Paul Kagame won his fourth presidential election in July, with over 99 percent of the vote, extending his de facto 30 year rule over the country. All of Kagame's victories were achieved with over 93 percent of the popular vote, which is widely considered to be through political repression and election fraud.

South Africa held Africa's most high-profile election in May. Unemployment, crime, and poverty were among the most prominent issues for voters, yet the legacy of corruption and cronyism in South African politics caused widespread disenfranchisement across the electorate, with its lowest turnout since Apartheid. The African National Congress (the party of Nelson Mandela), held onto its status the largest party, but for the first time since Apartheid's end they did not win a majority of seats, and had to form a coalition with the traditional opposition party, the Democratic Alliance. The ANC's decline in popularity was also partly due to the emergence of newer leftist parties, such as uMkhonto we Sizwe (led by former Prime Minister, Jacob Zuma) or the Economic Freedom Fighters, with uMkhonto we Sizwe even becoming the third largest party, despite only being founded six months previously.

North America: do new faces mean change or continuation?

The United States will undoubtedly have the most-watched election of the year. Initially billed as a rematch of the 2020 election, a fairly uneventful and noncompetitive primary season put forward Donald Trump and Joe Biden as their parties' respective nominees, however a tumultuous few weeks in July turned the race on its head. Before July, both candidates were fairly unpopular, and Trump led in most nationwide and swing state polls, although the gap was narrowing. Trump's unpopularity was in part due to his numerous legal trials and convictions, his involvement in the January 6. attack, the actions of his Supreme Court appointees (especially regarding abortion access), and his rhetoric throughout his political career, among others. For Biden, his unpopularity partly stemmed from his perceived inaction regarding border security, his support of Israel's invasion of Gaza, or questions over his old age and cognitive abilities. In a televised debate on June 27, Joe Biden's performance was considered a disaster by many as he frequently misspoke and appeared confused or forgetful at times. Top Democratic politicians and supporters gradually began calling for him to withdraw from the race while his numbers in the polls dropped significantly. Two weeks later, there was an assassination attempt on Donald Trump's life at a campaign rally on July 13 - a bullet went through the former President's ear and one attendee was killed while shielding his family. A few days later, President Biden fell ill with Covid, before eventually withdrawing from the race on July 21. This is the first time a sitting president has withdrawn from a presidential race since Jyndon B. Johnson did so due to his unpopularity during the Vietnam War in 1968. Vice President Kamala Harris quickly emerged as Biden's replacement, in a move that has invigorated the supporter base in recent weeks and seen overtake

To the south, in Mexico, the administration of Andrés Manual López Obrador (AMLO) was accused of eroding years of democratic progress - but this was not an issue for many voters. Although he was ineligible to run again, AMLO was one of the world's most popular leaders due to his anti-poverty policies, where minimum wage has increased drastically and millions have gained financial security from new welfare payments. To many, AMLO remained the most important figure in this election, and many viewed a vote for AMLO's successor, Claudia Scheinbaum (former Head of Government in Mexico City), as a vote for the continuation of his policies, as much less was known about Scheinbaum. In the election, Sheinbaum took almost 60 percent of the vote, making her the first female president in Mexico's history, while the Morena party alone took 248 of the 500 seats in the Chamber, and 60 of the 128 seats in the Senate, and will lead the ruling coalition in all areas of the federal government.

Central and South America: the rise and fall of autocrats?

In Central America, El Salvador's February election may prove to be the most important in the region. Since 2019, President Nayib Bukele has transformed El Salvador, overseeing its transition from one of the region's most dangerous countries to one of the safest, but his sweeping criminal justice reforms have resulted in El Salvador now having the highest incarceration rate in the world. Critics claim these measures have caused widespread police brutality, human rights infringements, and have set the country on the path towards dictatorship. Nonetheless, Bukele won the 2024 election in a landslide and is likely the most popular leader in the world - domestic approval ratings are around 90 percent, he is often cited as the most popular politician in other Latin American countries, and his methods are beginning to influence political discourse and campaigns across the region.

Further south, Venezuela's election was, perhaps unsurprisingly, the region's most contentious this year. Against the backdrop of years-long political, economic, and emigration crises, Venezuela has grown more isolated in this time, as President Nicolás Maduro has become increasingly autocratic. In 2023, the leading opposition figure, María Corina Machado, won primary elections to challenge Maduro for the presidency, but was then barred from running by the Maduro-controlled Supreme Court. The U.S. had promised that if free and fair elections were held it would remove many of the sanctions against Venezuela, a key contributor to its crises, but Machado's obstruction derailed this process. Going into election day on July 28, the two leading candidates were Maduro and Edmundo González (Machado's second replacement), with both candidates ultimately claiming victory after the election. According to the government's National Electoral Council, official results showed Maduro won 52 percent of the vote to González's 43 percent, although they did not provide any evidence to support these figures. A wave of anti-government protests then broke out across the country, however a severe crackdown has resulted in the deaths of at least 25 people and the arrest of thousands more. The opposition then released its own set of results showing González won 67 percent of the vote to Maduro's 30 percent, and released tallies from a large share of polling stations to support these figures. These results were then corroborated by several international institutions, while most Western and Latin American countries were either sceptical of or outright rejected the government's official results. As of late August, Maduro has been sworn in yet again, but whether he completes this six year term remains to be seen, as pressure from within and outside the country continues to build.