South Asia's super election year
No other region has such a high concentration of elections this year than South Asia, home to almost two billion people. In 2024, seven of the world’s ten most populous countries have national elections, and three are the neighbors of Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India. Both the elections in Bangladesh and Pakistan were overshadowed by violent protests, the suppression of opponents, and accusations of vote rigging; but, with notable differences in the outcomes. In Bangladesh, the ruling Awami League Party won its fourth consecutive election in a landslide, while Shiekh Hasina extended her title as the longest-serving elected female leader in history.In Pakistan, however, there was no landslide victory. For context, Pakistan has been in the midst of a political crisis since its Prime Minister, Imran Khan, was ousted in 2022, in a move believed to have been orchestrated by the military establishment. Since then, Khan survived an assassination attempt, was arrested, and sentencing to 10 years in prison, while his party, the PTI, was banned from running. Despite these and other methods of suppression, former-PTI candidates running as independents won the largest number of seats in the election, and it was only when reserved seats were allocated that the establishment-backed party could form a coalition government, but Khan’s shadow still looms large in the background of Pakistani politics. In the smaller South Asian countries, 2024’s elections still have significant implications given the economic crises in Sri Lanka and Bhutan, or the Maldives’ political realignment from India to China.
Yet, with almost one billion eligible voters, India’s election is undoubtedly the largest of the year, taking place between mid-April and early-June. The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are incredibly popular after being in power for the past decade. Issues such as poverty and education remain the biggest priority among Indian voters, while farmers’ protests for price controls have dominated the news early in the year, as have protests from non-Hindus, especially Muslims, following a series of exclusionary actions and policies made by the BJP. Nonetheless, Modi has the highest approval ratings of any G20 leader, and is expected to win this election with a comfortable majority.
Elsewhere in Asia
To the east, Taiwan held elections in January, with Vice President William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party winning the presidential election, although the Kuomintang (historically Taiwan’s most dominant party) took a plurality of seats in the legislature. Initially the Kuomintang and People’s Party sought to field a joint candidate against Lai, but disagreements turned the election into a three-way race, which was likely instrumental in handing Lai victory. This election was overshadowed by China, which has been more vocal in its pursuit of reunification in recent years, despite recent improvements in economic cooperation. In the buildup to the election, there was political pressure from Beijing, nearby military exercises, and waves of misinformation thought to have originated on the mainland. It remains to be seen how cross-Strait relations will develop after Lai takes office in May.Indonesia also held its general election in February, where its large but relatively young electorate meant the three presidential candidates targeted their campaigns at Gen Z and Millennial voters, addressing issues including employment, poverty, and sustainability. Retired army general Prabowo Subianto ultimately won the presidential election with almost 60 percent of the vote, while his party was just the third-largest in Indonesia’s legislature. To the north, South Korea held its parliamentary election in April, where the highest turnout in over three decades saw the incumbent president’s party suffer a heavy defeat. Further west, Iran held its first elections since the Mahsa Amini protests of 2022, although this was a subdued affair with low turnout, banning of most moderate figures, and sweeping victory for the Principalists (Conservatives).
Europe: a right-wing ascendancy?
Europe’s largest election this year will be the European Union’s Parliamentary elections in June. While issues such as migration, the Russia-Ukraine war, the economy, and climate are priorities for voters, it is the expected performance of Eurosceptic parties that is dominating the headlines. This year’s snap election in Portugal already saw the far-right make unprecedented gains in parliament, while a pro-Russia candidate won Slovakia’s presidential election. In recent years, growing support for far-right parties in countries such as France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands (all founding members) is a cause for concern among the EU’s more traditional and centrist groups, and far-right groups are expected to take roughly a quarter of seats in this year’s election.The largest domestic election in Europe took place in Russia (and parts of occupied-Ukraine), where Vladimir Putin won with almost 90 percent of the vote: his largest margin yet. This will keep him in power until at least 2030 (potentially 2036), after the two-term limit was reset in 2020. This election was considered neither free nor fair by international observers, as one month before the election, the only anti-war candidate was removed from the ballot, while Putin’s most prominent critic, Alexei Navalny, died under suspicious circumstances in a Siberian prison.
The United Kingdom will also likely have a general election before the year’s end, with the Labour Party set to return to power after 14 years of Conservative rule. In 2019, under Boris Johnson, the Conservatives won their largest election victory in decades. However, a series of scandals during the pandemic, the legacy of austerity measures, and numerous economic crises, among other issues, has seen their popularity fall significantly. Following a decline in support for the SNP, and projections that the new far-right Reform Party will syphon off a lot of Conservative support, it is projected that the Labour Party will win around 400 of the 650 seats in Parliament.
Africa: new challenges where democracy is already-weak
Political stability in Africa has come under increased pressure in recent years, with military coups taking power in seven countries since 2020, forming a so-called “coup belt” now stretching across the continent. Elections were scheduled in three of these countries in 2024, although those in Burkina Faso and Mali have been indefinitely postponed, while Mahamat Déby, son of president Idriss Déby (who ruled from 1990 until his death in 2021), is expected to win the presidential election in Chad.There are also notable elections in countries adjacent to the coup belt. Senegal held a presidential election in March - a political crisis materialized when opposition candidates were imprisoned and the president tried to postpone the election until December, but pro-democracy protests saw the election go ahead, the imprisoned figures were freed, and they are now set to become president and prime minister respectively. South Sudan will hold its first ever democratic elections since becoming an independent country in 2011. Ghana, the regions most stable democracy, will hold a general election in December, where the campaign will likely be dominated by its ongoing economic crisis. Elsewhere, EU leaders (especially Italy) will be following presidential elections in Algeria, Tunisia, and Rwanda, following major energy and immigration agreements made in 2023.
South Africa will hold Africa's most high-profile election in May. The African National Congress (the party of Nelson Mandela), will likely remain the largest party, but for the first time since Apartheid's end, they may not win a majority of seats. Unemployment, crime, and poverty are among the most prominent issues for voters, yet the legacy of corruption and cronyism in South African politics are causing widespread disenfranchisement across the electorate. The ANC's decline in popularity is partly due to the emergence of newer leftist parties, such as uMkhonto we Sizwe or the Economic Freedom Fighters. However, they may find themselves competing with their more established opposition, the Democratic Alliance, to form a coalition government with these and other smaller parties.
The Americas: democracy on the ballot
The United States will undoubtedly have the most-watched election of the year. Although this is a rematch of the 2020 election, both candidates remain fairly unpopular across the electorate for a variety of reasons. For Donald Trump, his attempts to overturn the 2020 election, the January 6. attack, the impact of his Supreme Court appointees (especially regarding abortion access), and his high-profile court cases, are just some of the reasons for his unpopularity. For Biden, many voters believe his age and cognitive ability are cause for concern, while others oppose his support of Israel's actions in Gaza or blame him for uncontrolled immigration across the southern border. At the beginning of 2024, Trump held a notable lead over Biden in the polls, but the gap has since narrowed, likely due to his changing stance on Gaza, general improvement in the country's economy, or Trump's high profile criminal trial. Biden actually has a nationwide lead when only likely voters are considered, but it remains to be seen whether this will be enough to negate Trump's lead in the key swing states by election day on November 5.To the south, in Mexico, the administration of Andrés Manual López Obrador (AMLO) has been accused of eroding years of democratic progress - but this is not an issue for many voters. Although he is ineligible to run again, AMLO is one of the world's most popular leaders due to his anti-poverty policies, where minimum wage has increased drastically and millions have gained financial security from new welfare payments. AMLO's popularity directly trickles down to his party's prospects in July's election, and his successor, Claudia Scheinbaum, is on course to become Mexico's first female president. Sheinbaum has promised to continue many of AMLO's most popular policies, but also pledged to make further progress regarding crime, gender equality, and the climate crisis.
Elsewhere in the Americas, El Salvador's February election may prove to be one of the most important in the region. Since 2019, President Nayib Bukele has transformed El Salvador through its transition from one of the region's most dangerous countries to one of the safest, but the sweeping reforms to the criminal justice system have resulted in El Salvador now having the highest incarceration rate in the world. Critics claim these measures have caused widespread police brutality, the infringement of human rights, and have set the country on the path towards dictatorship. Nonetheless, Bukele won the 2024 election in a landslide and is likely the most popular leader in the world - his domestic approval ratings are around 90 percent, he is often cited as the most popular politician in other Latin American countries, and his methods are beginning to influence political discourse and campaigns across the region.
