Voting intention in a general election in the United Kingdom 2017-2021

In June 2021, 46 percent of British adults intend to vote for the Conservative party in a potential general election in the United Kingdom, with 30 percent advising they would vote for the Labour party. Although this puts the Conservative party ahead of their nearest rivals, this 16 point gap is still smaller than the huge 24-point lead the party held over the Labour party in March 2020, just prior to the start of the first wave of the Coronavirus pandemic. This recent improvement in the position of the Conservative party may be due to the successful rollout of the COVDID-19 vaccine in early 2021, with the UK having the fifth highest vaccination rate in the world as of March 2021.

 UK government and Coronavirus

The evaporation of the Conservative party's lead over Labour throughout 2020 was almost certainly due to the government's faltering response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although initially, the government's approval rating gained a significant boost in the Spring, this fell drastically between May and June. The proximate cause for this was a political scandal that unfolded involving the Prime Minister's most senior advisor, Dominic Cummings and his perceived breaking of several lockdown rules at the height of the first wave. It was also clear by this point, that the UK had suffered far worse than many other countries and had shockingly high number of excess deaths.

 Turbulent 2019

The political volatility that can be seen in the first months of 2019 was undoubtedly linked to the uncertainty over Brexit. After negotiating with the European Union for over a year, the Prime Minister, Theresa May had her Brexit deal rejected three times by the British parliament, resulting in her eventual resignation. As a result, Brexit was delayed, giving rise to her successor Boris Johnson, as well as a newly created ‘Brexit Party’ (later renamed Reform UK) led by Nigel Farage. In the end, Johnson was the clear winner of all the political chaos after winning a substantial majority in the UK's general election of 2019.