Voting intention in the United Kingdom 2017-2022

In June 2022, 33 percent of British adults intended to vote for the Conservative party in a potential general election in the United Kingdom, with 39 percent advising that they would vote for the Labour party. This is a far weaker position for the Conservative party than the huge 24-point lead the party held over the Labour party in March 2020, just before the first wave of the Coronavirus pandemic. Recent polls also reflect growing public discontent with the government after evidence emerged that Downing Street staff broke lockdown rules for social occasions in 2020. This scandal, known as 'Partygate' in the British press, has damaged the reputation of Boris Johnson, with just 27 percent of British adults advising he was the best person for Prime Minister.

 UK government and Coronavirus

The evaporation of the Conservative party's lead over Labour throughout 2020 was almost certainly due to the government's faltering response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the government's approval rating initially gained a significant boost in the Spring, this fell drastically between May and June. The proximate cause for this was a political scandal that unfolded involving the Prime Minister's most senior advisor, Dominic Cummings, and his perceived breaking of several lockdown rules at the height of the first wave. It was also evident by this point that the UK had suffered far worse than many other countries and had a shockingly high number of excess deaths. The healthy poll results seen for the Conservatives after these events in early 2021 may have been due to their initial success in distributing the COVID-19 vaccine.

 Turbulent 2019

The political volatility seen in the first months of 2019 was directly linked to uncertainty over Brexit. After negotiating with the European Union for over a year, the Prime Minister at the time, Theresa May, had her Brexit deal rejected three times by the British parliament, resulting in her eventual resignation. As a result, Brexit was delayed, giving rise to her successor Boris Johnson, as well as a newly created ‘Brexit Party’ (later renamed Reform UK) led by Nigel Farage. In the end, Johnson was the clear winner of all the political chaos after winning a substantial majority in the UK's general election of 2019.