Presidential elections in Brazil 2022 - statistics & facts

According to the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, there were 156 million authorized voters, the largest electorate in the country’s history. Voting in Brazil is optional for illiterate citizens and for those aged above 16 or 70, and mandatory for literate ones between 18 and 70 years old. Nevertheless, only 124.25 million electors ended up voting in the second round, which translated into an abstention rate of 20.6 percent, marking the first time in Brazil in which the turnout of the runoff elections exceeded that of the first round, and the lowest abstention rate since 2006.

Bolsonaro vs Lula

There were a total of 12 presidential candidates registered, each with their respective vice president. However, it was a very inequal presidential race, as only two candidates were prominent in the opinion polls.

Incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, was one of them. Running as candidate for the Partido Liberal (Liberal Party), Bolsonaro won the 2018 elections presenting himself as anti-establishment and with a campaign focused on fighting violence and corruption, and boosting business through liberalization. In Congress, his agenda has counted with the backing of three very powerful groups, known as “Beef, Bible, and Bullets”, that is, agribusiness, the Evangelical church, and the military.

Deregulation and privatization measures, granting formal independence to the Central Bank of Brazil, the reform of the pension system and the decrease in homicide rates are pointed to by his supporters as some of the main achievements of Bolsonaro's government. The main criticisms, on the other hand, signal his poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy, and the environment. Brazil has been badly hit by the pandemic and more than 680,000 people lost their lives to it. The country’s inflation rate has been soaring since May 2020, and by the time of the elections exceeded 11 percent. Furthermore, the weakening of environmental laws and institutions led to greater deforestation in the Amazon. These are some of the reasons for Bolsonaro's low approval rate, which stood at 28 percent in July 2022.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was the other major contender. Candidate for the Partido dos Trabalhadores or PT (Workers’ Party), the left-wing politician was president for two consecutive terms between 2003 and 2010, and left Palácio da Alvorada with a high approval rate after a presidency marked by economic growth and social mobility. His government benefited from the commodity boom and redirected the benefits into large social welfare programs, like Bolsa Família, which lifted millions of Brazilians out of poverty while fomenting education.

Lula’s presidency was shadowed by numerous cases of corruption with Operação Lava Jato, “Operation Car Wash”, the biggest of them all. An investigation launched in 2014 uncovered a scandal of bribes, kickbacks, and appointments involving Petrobras, the state-owned oil-company, and hundreds of individuals. In 2018, Lula was sentenced to 12 years and one month in prison after being charged with passive corruption and money laundering, having apparently accepted a beachfront apartment. Nevertheless, in March 2021, the conviction was annulled and all charges were eventually dropped. Soon after regaining his political rights, he announced his intention to join the electoral race with promises to expand the Brazilian state and increase wealth taxes, among other things.

Results of the first round and second

As predicted by electoral polls, Lula and Bolsonaro were the two most voted for candidates in the first round of the presidential election, held on October 2. Nevertheless, the gap between Lula and Bolsonaro was narrower than most polls predicted, since the share of ballots for the PL candidate ended up being larger than forecast. Bolsonaro received 43.2 percent of the valid votes, against the 48.43 percent of Lula, for whom a total of 57.26 million ballots were cast. The distance between the two candidates got even narrower in the second round; Brazil has a two-round electoral system, so as no candidate obtained more than half the votes, a runoff election took place on October 30. In that occasion, Lula was elected as the next Brazilian president with a total of 60.35 million votes , merely 2.1 million ballots more than his opponent.

The distribution of votes showed a marked geographical division, with the PT candidate being preferred in the Northeast and incumbent president Bolsonaro gathering most votes in the South and Central-West regions. The success of Lula in the Northeast was crucial for his victory, as the difference between both candidates there amounted to 12.5 million votes.

With the PT candidate reaching Palácio da Alvorada once again, the turn to the left or "Second Pink Tide" in Latin America has been consolidated. Lula's victory had been preceded by the appointment of left-wing presidents in Chile, Honduras, Peru, and Colombia.

Political violence, fake news and threats on democracy

The 2022 Brazilian elections have been considered to be very polarized and radicalized, as reflected in the high rejection rates and the unprecedented concentration of votes in the two leading candidates. This shows that many Brazilians cast a pragmatic ballot, choosing Bolsonaro or Lula not because they really wished that candidate to rule the country, but because they did not want the other one to do so.

Such radicalization is closely linked to the levels of violence witnessed in the campaign. Political leaders were subjected to threats, attacks, and even murders. Republicanos, PSD, PT, and PL are the parties with the largest number of victims of the crimes registered in the first half of 2022. This was, however, not something new, as previous general elections also registered large numbers of politically motivated crimes, and Bolsonaro himself was stabbed during the 2018 campaign.

Fake and misleading news were also widespread. A large share of Brazilians uses social media platforms to discuss politics and to obtain political information. Inevitably, social and political turmoil translated to social media as well, where fake news were commonly found. For instance, about two thirds of users of Facebook and WhatsApp in Brazil stated to have encountered fake news on these platforms. News sources were under scrutiny as well. TV news was deemed as the most trustworthy source, even though only 41 percent of people expressed trust in them. On the opposite side, less than 20 percent trusted platforms like Facebook, TikTok, and WhatsApp as news sources.

In this regard, Bolsonaro is well-known for making polemic and false claims. In 2021 alone, he made more than 2,500 statements containing information deemed fake or distorted. He even faced inquiries from the Supreme Federal Court for false claims about COVID-19, like linking the vaccine to developing AIDS. Democratic institutions have also been targeted by the President. He questioned the safety of the electronic ballot system on various occasions, saying that the electoral system could be rigged in the incoming elections. This allegation, which he backed with no evidence, seemed to have gained popularity, as most right-wing Brazilians do not trust voting machines. Such statements raised fears that Bolsonaro would not accept his defeat, claiming electoral fraud and launching an institutional crisis in Brazil. Nevertheless, despite his initial silence in the hours following the results, he did not contest them. Bolsonaro's ambiguity and the hundreds of roadblocks erected by his supporters all across the country meant that the process of transition was launched not without incidents.