When the Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out the 77th Golden Globes on Sunday, there were plenty of winners and one big loser. Let’s get to the latter first: despite winning 34 nominations, Netflix only won two awards, not including any of the night’s biggest prizes. Those went to the war drama “1917”, which won “Best Motion Picture – Drama” and “Best Director – Motion Picture” and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”, which was crowned “Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy”.
Netflix had high hopes going into award season this year, with “The Irishman”, “Marriage Story” and “The Two Popes” all considered serious Oscar contenders. Not all is lost for the world’s largest streaming service, however, because being snubbed at the Golden Globes doesn’t necessarily spell doom for the Oscars, which will be awarded in early February.
As the following chart shows, the Golden Globes are a decent but imperfect Oscar predictor. Using the “Best Picture” category as an example, 66 percent of all Oscar-winning movies since 1950 had won a Golden Globe before, most frequently (49% of the time) in the “Best Drama” category. That would make Sam Mendes’ “1917” the favorite for this year’s main prize at the Oscars if it weren’t for an interesting trend that has emerged over the past few years: While a Golden Globe winner also won at the Oscars 12 out of 15 times between 1990 and 2004, 9 of the 15 “Best Picture” winners since 2005 were previously snubbed at the Golden Globes.
Unlike the “Best Picture” category at the Oscars, which isn’t genre-specific, two separate Golden Globes are awarded for “Best Motion Picture – Drama” and “Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy”, effectively doubling the chances of a Golden Globe winner also taking the top honors at the Academy Awards a month later.