According to an analysis by Deutsche Bank, the effects of the coronavirus will lower global GDP growth in 2020, the effect radiating as far as Europe and the U.S. and even setting back global growth forecasts by 0.2 percent.
China, where the epicenter of the epidemic is located, will be hardest hit. Q1 GDP growth there is expected to be 1.5 percent lower at only 4.6 percent. Over the course of the year, that effect will be mitigated to 0.3 percent lower growth. Japan is expected to be about as hard hit as emerging economies in Asia. Since the country’s economic motor is sputtering anyways, the virus is expected to push the country into negative growth territory in Q1 and 2020 as a whole.
While the coronavirus has an obvious effect on commerce in Chinese cities which are heavily affected by it, it has also caused countless travel cancellations in Asia and beyond, the closing down of casinos in Macao, a prolonged new year’s break for Chinese stock markets and the cancellation of important trade fairs and sporting events in the region, all contributing to money lost for local and global economies.