Out of 3,766 voters who were polled in six of the swing states, 84 percent said they would not be persuaded leading up to the 2020 presidential election. The poll, conducted by the New York Times/Siena College from October 13 to October 26, represents registered voters in Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona and Michigan—the competitive states President Trump won in the 2016 election. One year before the election, 6 percent of respondents said they were somewhat persuadable, and 9 percent said they were persuadable.
Those who were certain were split about which candidate they would vote for. Thirty-two percent said they would “definitely vote” for Trump and 33 percent they would “definitely vote” for the Democratic nominee. Though less certain but not persuadable, 11 percent said there was “not really any chance” they would vote for Democratic nominee and 8 percent said there was “not really any chance” they would vote for Trump.