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Four scenarios on projected health impact of COVID-19 on the continent of Africa 2020

Different scenarios on the projected health impact of coronavirus in Africa by the end of pandemic in 2020

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Source

Release date

April 2020

Region

Africa

Survey time period

March 25, 2020

Special properties

Simulations based off Imperial College Epidemiological Model

Supplementary notes

The sources explained the various scenarios as followed:

  1. Scenario A: Unmitigated (worst case) - no intervention.
  2. Scenario B: Mitigation using moderate social distancing - Optimal outcome when epidemic is mitigated through interventions to limit contacts in general population including social distancing (45% reduction in contact rate).
  3. Scenario C: Suppression using intense social distancing (1.6) – introduction of intense social distancing measures that reduce the contact rate in the general population by 75 per cent once the 1.6 deaths per 100,000 per week trigger is reached.
  4. Scenario D: Suppression using intense social distancing (0.2) – introduction of intense social distancing measures that reduce the contact rate in the general population by 75 per cent once the 0.2 deaths per 100,000 per week trigger is reached.

Projected health impact based on the Imperial College Epidemiological Model as at March 25, 2020.

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Statistics on "Regional overview of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic 2019-20"

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