China: birth rate 2023

In 2023, the number of children born per 1,000 people in China ranged statistically at 6.39. The birth rate dropped considerably since 2016, and the number of births fell below the number of deaths in 2022 for the first time in decades, leading to a negative population growth rate.

Recent development of the birth rate

Similar to most East-Asian countries and territories, demographics in China today are characterized by a very low fertility rate. As low fertility in the long-term limits economic growth and leads to heavy strains on the pension and health systems, the Chinese government decided to support childbirth by gradually relaxing strict birth control measures, that had been in place for three decades. However, the effect of this policy change was considerably smaller than expected. The birth rate increased from 11.9 births per 1,000 inhabitants in 2010 to 14.57 births in 2012 and remained on a higher level for a couple of years, but then dropped again to a new low in 2018. This illustrates that other factors constrain the number of births today. These factors are most probably similar to those experienced in other developed countries as well: women preferring career opportunities over maternity, high costs for bringing up children, and changed social norms, to name only the most important ones.

Future demographic prospects

Between 2020 and 2023, the birth rate in China dropped to formerly unknown lows, most probably strongly influenced by the coronavirus pandemic. As all COVID-19 restrictions were lifted by the end of 2022, it is very likely that the number of births will also increase again. However, the scope of the rebound might be limited. A population breakdown by five-year age groups indicates that the drop in the number of births is also related to a shrinking number of people with child-bearing age. The age groups between 15 and 29 years today are considerably smaller than those between 30 and 44, leaving less space for the birth rate to increase. This effect is exacerbated by a considerable gender gap within younger age groups in China, with the number of females being much lower than that of males.